Research On The Procyclical Effects Of Securities Companies Under The Background Of Transition

In recent years,the rapid development of Chinese securities industry has become increasingly important to the national economy.With the improvement of the competition of the securities industry and the continuous emergence of financial innovation,the securities companies gradually get rid of the dependence on the brokerage business,and the revenue sources are wider and the business structure is more diversified.Since 2017,the securities investment income has become the largest source of revenue,equity or securities pledge loan became new growth point,but capital intermediary and securities investment compared with the securities brokerage takes up more money,lowered the securities company the total return on assets in recent years.The increase in the proportion of heavy capital income may make the pro-cyclical effect of securities companies more obvious,which not only poses a challenge to the stability of securities companies’ own operation,but also may aggravate market fluctuations and pose new challenges to the stability of the financial system.Taking the pro-cyclical effect of domestic securities industry as the research object,this paper looks for the macro external factors that will aggravate the fluctuation of securities companies’ operating performance,analyzes the possible impact of the diversification of securities companies on the pro-cyclical effect,and looks for the factors that can reduce the fluctuation of securities companies’ performance.In combination with the case analysis,in order to reduce the fluctuation of the performance of securities companies and maintain the stability of the financial system,some Suggestions are put forward.Taking public securities companies as research samples,this paper used data from 2010 to 2018 to analyze the relationship between capital structure,cost control ability,shareholder governance and business structure,as well as the relationship between profits and risks of securities companies due to the pro-cyclical effect of external factors by establishing a regression model.Firstly,the growth rate of GDP,the growth rate of broad money supply and the rise and fall of hushen 300 index have a significant positive impact on the returns and risks of securities companies.When securities companies have better returns,their risk exposure will be greater,and external factors will aggravate the performance fluctuations of securities companies.Secondly,the income structure has an impact on the income and risk of the securities company.The increase in the proportion of commission net income is helpful to increase the yield rate and reduce the risk.The degree of pro-cyclical of different businesses is not the same.In addition,reducing the proportion of administrative expenses can improve the return of securities companies and reduce the risk.Raising the equity multiplier can increase the return of the securities firm,and borrowing long-term bonds will not increase the operating risk of the company.Major shareholders of public securities companies have greater positive effects on corporate governance.In combination with the diversified development strategy of Orient securities in recent years,with traditional advantage project of asset management and securities investment,this paper put forward the proposal.First of all,the securities firm should strive to improve the commission income,as the most stable source of income,and realize the diversification of income,focus on increasing the income of investment banking and asset management.In the traditional brokerage business,campany should improve the sales of financial products and investment consulting income.Secondly,securities companies make full use of their advantages in investment and research ability,and take investment income as a broad profit growth point under the opportunity of multi-level capital market construction and the reformation of securities issuance.In addition,the CSRC can follow the example of commercial Banks to increase the counter-cyclical regulation mechanism and improve the positive role of risk management indicators in maintaining market stability.