Modeling transportation in Abu Dhabi: A 25-year projection of emissions under alternative scenarios of the passenger vehicle fleet

The transportation sector is a rapidly increasing source of greenhouse gas (GHG) and criteria air pollutant emissions worldwide. These emissions contribute to global climate change and declining local air quality, with implications for human health. This study develops a model of the passenger vehicle fleet of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, from 2005 to 2030 to evaluate the emissions of GHGs and air pollutants under alternative vehicle fleet composition scenarios. A baseline scenario is compared with two alternative scenarios to evaluate the impact of compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles and fuel economy improvements on fuel consumption, emissions, and costs. While both CNG vehicles and fuel economy improvements reduce fuel consumption and emissions below baseline levels, the CNG scenario costs US...