| Multiple theories have been put forth attempting to explain why collective violence occurs in certain transitioning states and why it doesn't in others. To date, these theories have adequately explained why collective violence occurs in individual test cases, but have failed to provide a model that can be broadly applied to a variety of cases and to predict the probability of violence therein. In this thesis I review current theories and combine different aspects of them in order to present a new 'hybrid' theoretical model of predicting the probability of collective violence in states that are transitioning to Democracy. Each transitioning state will present its own set of unique challenges, but by understanding the basic framework and identifying common trends, it is possible to develop a loose model that will identify whether a state is at a high or low risk for collective violence. By blending positive aspects of multiple specific theories, I will present a new compound model based on existing theories that will aid in identifying potential collective violence in the future, and hopefully assist in preventing it. |
