| In the early 1970s, mathematician and economist Nicolas Georgescu-Roegen developed an alternative framework to macro-economics (his hourglass model) based on two principles of classical thermodynamics applied to the earth-system as a whole. The new model led him to the radical conclusion that "not only growth, but also a zero-growth state, nay, even a declining state which does not converge toward annihilation, cannot exist forever in a finite environment" (Georgescu-Roegen 1976, p.23). Georgescu-Roegen's novel approach long served as a devastating critique of standard neoclassical growth theories. It also helped establish the foundations for the new trans-disciplinary field of ecological economics. In recent decades however, it has remained unclear whether revolutionary developments in "modern non-equilibrium thermodynamics" (Kondepudi and Prigogine 1998) refute some of Georgescu-Roegen's initial conclusions and provide fundamentally new lessons for very long-term macro-economic analysis. Based on a broad historical review of literature from many fields (thermodynamics, cosmology, ecosystems ecology and economics), I argue that Georgescu-Roegen's hourglass model is largely based on old misconceptions and assumptions from 19th century thermodynamics (including an out-dated cosmology) which make it very misleading. Ironically, these assumptions (path independence and linearity of the entropy function in particular) replicate the non-evolutionary thinking he seemed to despise in his colleagues. In light of modern NET, I propose a different model. Contrary to Georgescu-Roegen's hourglass, I do not assume the path independence of the entropy function. In the new model, achieving critical free energy rate density thresholds can abruptly increase the level of complexity and maximum remaining lifespan of stock-based civilizations. |
