Simulation Analysis Of China's Modern Energy Economic Development Policy Based On CGE Model

Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up,China's economy has grown in a rough way with high energy consumption,high emissions and low efficiency,which has led to a continuous increase in fossil energy consumption and CO₂ emissions.The contradiction between energy consumption,CO₂ emission and economic growth is becoming increasingly prominent.In order to solve the contradiction between energy environment economic growth,Xi Jinping put forward the"high energy development requirements"in the"Nineteen big":"clean utilization of fossil energy,clean energy development and energy efficiency improvement";and the requirement of sustainable economic growth:"energy should be supplied to adequate,safe,low price,clean environment and energy efficiency".At the first session of the 13th National People's Congress in 2018,the Inner Mongolia Delegation further proposed the concept of modern energy economic development."Modern energy economy"has officially become a new concept,new concept and new requirement for the development of energy economy in the new era.Therefore,the academic discussion around the concept and the empirical simulation of the corresponding energy environment economic policy are helpful to understand and grasp the relationship between the energy policy and economic growth which meet the internal requirements of the development of modern energy economy.At the same time,it can provide decision-making assistance for the design of energy policy for the development of modern energy economy,which has important academic value and application value.Based on the above research background,this paper first discusses and defines the connotation of modern energy economy,which provides a theoretical basis for the later policy simulation.It also introduces the computable general equilibrium model theory and the social accounting matrix theory,and introduces the basic principle and algorithm theory of the application of the model from the method level.Secondly,it constructs the CGE model of China's energy environment in line with the connotation of modern energy economic development.Finally,based on the 2017 input-output table and relevant energy economic data,the 2017 Sam table of China is constructed.According to the consolidation rules of input-output table,148 production activity departments are divided into 5 energy departments and 6 non energy departments.Four energy and environmental policies?improving energy efficiency,clean energy substitution,reasonable price and Carbon emission reduction?and discuss the impact of various policy instruments on the overall macro-economy,energy consumption and CO₂ emissions.The main conclusions are as follows:?1?The connotation of modern energy economic development is mainly summarized as follows:first,sufficient security;second,low energy price;third,clean and efficient;fourth,low carbon.The essence of these connotations is to improve the efficiency of energy utilization,reasonably set energy prices,improve the structure of clean energy consumption and reduce CO₂ emissions.This is also the policy direction of high-quality energy development.?2?From the simulation results of China's modern energy economic development policy,we can see that:first,thermal power and clean energy efficiency have the best effect on energy conservation and emission reduction,and fossil energy has the energy rebound effect due to its efficiency improvement,resulting in the increase of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions.Second,levying the ad valorem carbon tax on fossil energy has a good effect on carbon emission reduction,and the higher the carbon tax rate,the better the effect of carbon emission reduction,but it will lead to the decline of economic growth,the increase of unemployment and the decrease of residents'welfare.Third,the proportion of clean energy consumption has been increased,which has a significant effect on carbon emission reduction and a small effect on economic growth and social welfare of residents.Fourth,the price of different kinds of fossil energy will decline,which will lead to the increase of GDP,energy and CO₂ consumption,emissions and intensity to different degrees,while the price of electricity will lead to a small drop in GDP.Based on the analysis of the above results,policy recommendations are given:reasonably reduce energy prices,adjust energy consumption structure,implement carbon tax from fossil energy price and improve energy utilization efficiency.