| The Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) has been making extended regional forecasts of atmospheric elements and fire danger indices since September 27, 1997. This study performs a verification of these forecasts in comparison with remote automated weather station (RAWS) observations in the western US. Verification of ECPC validating observations versus RAWS observations is also performed. Bias, root-mean square error, and anomaly correlations are computed for daily 2-meter maximum, minimum, average temperature, 2-meter maximum, minimum, and average relative humidity, precipitation and afternoon 10-meter wind speed, and four National Fire Danger Rating System indices---ignition component, spread component, burning index, and energy release component. Of the atmospheric elements, temperature generally correlates the highest in all three verifications, and relative humidity, precipitation, and wind speed are less correlated. Overall, fire danger indices have much lower correlations, but do show useful spatial structure in some areas such as Southern California, Arizona, and Nevada. |
