Future electricity generation: An economic and environmental life cycle perspective on near-, mid- and long-term technology options and policy implications

This thesis evaluates the cost and environmental tradeoffs of current and future electricity generation options from a life cycle perspective. Policy and technology options are considered for each critical time horizon (near-, mid-, and long-term).; The framework developed for this analysis is a hybrid life cycle analysis which integrates several models and frameworks including process and input-output life cycle analysis, an integrated environmental control model, social costing, forecasting and future energy scenario analysis.; The near-term analysis shows that several recent LCA studies of electricity options have contributed to our understanding of the technologies available and their relative environmental impacts. Several promising options could satisfy our electricity demands. Other options remain unproven or too costly to encourage investment in the near term but show promise for future use (e.g. photovoltaic, fuel cells). Public concerns could impede the use of some desirable technologies (e.g. hydro, nuclear). Finally, less tangible issues such as intermittency of some renewable technologies, social equity and visual and land use impacts, while difficult to quantify, must be considered in the investment decision process.; In the mid-term analysis, this thesis explores alternative methods for transport of coal energy. A hybrid life cycle analysis is critical for evaluating the cost, efficiency and environmental tradeoffs of the entire system. If a small amount of additional coal is to be shipped, current rail infrastructure should be used where possible. If entirely new infrastructure is required, the mine mouth generation options are cheaper but have increased environmental impact due to the increased generation required to compensate for transmission line losses. Gasifying the coal to produce methane also shows promise in terms of lowering environmental emissions.; The long-term analysis focuses on the implications of a high coal use future. This scenario analysis focuses on life cycle issues and considers various generation and control technologies. When advanced technologies such as gasification with carbon capture and sequestration are used, emissions during generation decrease to a level where environmental discharges from extraction, processing and transportation become the dominant concern. The location of coal, coal composition and mining method are important in determining the overall impacts. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)...