| This dissertation develops a statistically based approach for predicting the reliability of stockpiled missile systems stored under normal conditions, through storage year 14. The research utilizes existing historical missile firing data from three distinct U. S. Army missile systems. A premise of the research documented herein is the concept of the commonality of functions intrinsic to all missile systems.; The results of this research indicate that there is no statistical correlation between missile system performance and time-in-storage prior to storage year five. Using regression analysis and appropriate statistical hypothesis tests, a model was developed for predicting missile stockpile reliability for missile systems aged 5 through 14, inclusive. An empirical look-up table was developed for a simulation model using SIMSCRIPT II.5 Simulation Language, Release 1.8C for Windows. Several examples are presented demonstrating the utility of the simulation model using typical missile surveillance data. |
