Changing beliefs and changing policies: Explaining transitions in United States foreign policy toward Central America during the Reagan and Bush years

This study argues that a president's foreign policy beliefs represent a critical independent variable that must be considered together with system-level and domestic-level variables in order to understand the causes behind changes in U.S. foreign policy. The relationship between presidential beliefs and changes in U.S. foreign policy was investigated through an examination of a specific foreign policy activity: namely, shifts in U.S. intervention in El Salvador and Nicaragua during the Reagan and Bush presidencies.; A modified version of the operational code construct was used to develop the belief systems of President Reagan and President Bush. This analytical model consisted of the president's national self-image, images of allies and adversaries, as well as beliefs concerning international politics, the flow of history, and the nature of change. To assess the impact of a president's beliefs on foreign policy behavior, I utilized Alexander George's congruence method to show why certain policy options were selected rather than others.; The central hypothesis of this dissertation linking presidential foreign policy beliefs and changes in U.S. foreign policy behavior was examined through two case studies: U.S. policy toward El Salvador from 1980--1992 and U.S. policy toward Nicaragua from 1980--1990. The empirical evidence from the case studies served to confirm the hypothesis, albeit with reservations. The fundamental difference between Reagan's and Bush's policies toward El Salvador and Nicaragua turned out to be the two presidents' different beliefs concerning the usefulness of diplomatic negotiations in securing U.S. interests in the region, with Reagan being generally averse to their use and Bush being generally open to them.