| Protected area conservation efforts often face severe obstacles in developing countries, particularly where human population growth and migration are rapid. One recurrent problem is the difficulty of isolating reserves and projects for the conservation of tropical forest habitat from people and anthropogenic influence. The resultant unavoidable mixing of environmental and development objectives has created a related challenge—the identification of reliable indicators to assess conservation efforts with multiple goals.; This research explores the hypothesis that the human population density may be a useful index at multiple scales to understand thresholds of over-utilization of forest areas. Specifically, population density functions as a valuable coarse filter for determining how much forest cover will be sustained at multiple scales relevant to conservation. The research was conducted in the Maya Biosphere Reserve, a 21,000 km2 protected area in northern Guatemala, and at related nested scales. Population and forest cover data were analyzed at multiple spatial scales (i.e., Central America, Guatemala, the Petén, the Maya Biosphere Reserve, its sub-component reserve zones, and the town of Paso Caballos) and temporal scales (data from 1940–1983, 1960–1995, 1960–1997, 1986–1997). A strong inverse relationship between population density and forest cover exists at all scales, and the correlation is particularly strong in and near the reserve.; In light of this statistical relationship and the rapid historical and projected population growth, the thesis also re-considers the design of the Maya Biosphere Reserve, its management plan, and its conservation goals. The thesis then analyzes population and reproductive health programs in Guatemala, particularly in the context of conservation goals. It also suggests a few ways in which demographic analysis, population policy and conservation efforts might be re-designed and coordinated to support protected area management goals, in Guatemala and elsewhere.; The final portion of the thesis lays out some new potential approaches by which conservation biology and its affiliated fields can integrate demography and human population science and policy. While some version of sustainable development may ultimately be compatible with habitat and biodiversity conservation, this is unlikely to be successful without the incorporation of the best demographic data, projections and policy tools available. |
