The Study On Demographic Dividend

Guangdong province has finished the demographic transition since the family planning policy in early1970’s. The type of population reproduction with high birth rate, low death rate, high natural growth rate has changed into a new type with low birth rate, low death rate, low natural growth rate. Becaused of the different descent speed, Guangdong’s population age structure changes into a new model that the working-age population accounts for a large proportion. This new model of population age structure results in demographic dividend. The economics of Guangdong get a rapid development including in the deposit, foreign investment and industrial structure.Analyze the influence to the population age structure from Guangdong demographic transition and the benefit to the economics during the period of demographic dividend in this paper. Then predict the population of Guangdong for decades on the basis of the data of6th population census and analyze the future of demographic dividend.Guangdong has finished demographic transition and it lead to a special population age structure. Demographic dividend period of Guangdong will last from2000to2044. During this period, the economics of Guangdong gets better development. But the low fertility rate lead to few children and aging population, Guangdong may suffer insufficient workforce. Guangdong should get well prepared by changing demographic dividend into talent dividend. Guangdong should turn the attention from controlling the quantity of population to improving the quality of it, from human resource to human capital, from factors driven to innovation driven.