The evolution of trade patterns

This thesis presents an empirical analysis of the evolution of export specialization and concentration using panel models. Stylized facts of the evolution of the specialization of countries and concentration of industries are derived and related to trade theories. The purpose of the work presented here is to give empirical results that theorists can use to guide their analysis.; The specialization and mobility of trade patterns. According to many open economy growth models, what a country exports will affect its economic development. However, these models differ in their predictions about the evolution of export specialization, depending on whether they assume industry-specific learning-by-doing or spillovers. I examine which models give the most accurate predictions and investigate the relationship of specialization and mobility with economic development, openness, and membership in the EU.; I use concise measures of specialization and mobility for 89 countries and 4-digit SITC manufacturing data on exports from 1980 to 1997. The extent of specialization is measured by a Dissimilarity Index while a modified Shorrocks (1978) index measures mobility in the pattern of specialization. Alternative measurement methods and their implications are discussed. Having single numbers to represent the degree of specialization and mobility for each country allows for the estimation of previously untested relationships. Estimations come from simple ordinary least squares and dynamic panel data models.; An empirical investigation of the concentration of industry exports . Though much attention has been given to assessing the extent of concentration of economic activity within countries, the concentration of industries' exports across countries has barely begun to be analyzed. International trade models with industry specific learning-by-doing or decreasing trade costs such as Lucas (1988) or Krugman (1991) predict that over time a smaller number of countries account for a larger share of industries' exports. Agglomeration models, where benefits of being in the same location stem from a shared labor pool and transfers of knowledge, also generate increasing concentration. Alternatively, models with technology diffusion imply mobility in countries' trade patterns. This paper measures the concentration of industries' exports and estimates dynamics of concentration patterns with the goal of providing evidence that can be used to construct appropriate models of location and evolution of exporting industries. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)...