Achieving Low-Carbon Urban Transport in the Middle East/North Africa Through the High Shift Scenario, Implications

The "High Shift Scenario" (HS) developed by researchers at UC Davis and International Transportation Development Program (ITDP) in 2014 gives a sense of the potential role of public transit and "active transport" in cities around the world through 2050. The scenario also estimates a range of costs along with a baseline scenario. It considers what future urban travel patterns could be if the policies and investments currently in place in the nations with the most efficient urban transport were replicated throughout the world. It finds that increased transit investments and use would not only mean better mobility for most urban income groups, but also could substantially reduce urban GHG emissions and benefit air quality.;The current analysis delves into the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) with more detail by exploring implications of the High Shift scenario in this region. In order to achieve the High-Shift Scenario, a source of investments would be needed. The region spends an estimated 40 billion dollars per year on motor fuel subsidies. The revenue created from eliminating fuel subsidies in each country are compared to the costs of developing the High-Shift scenario. To calculate the investment costs for each country, the regional results are disaggregated using the population of each country. In this hypothetical comparison, fuel subsidy revenue would significantly support covering the increased transit investment costs needed for the high-shift scenario.;The HS scenario would dramatically boost urban mobility for low and middle income groups in the MENA region, providing more equitable access to jobs, education, and healthcare, with less automobile-dependent systems that typically do not cater to lower income groups, given low car ownership rates.