Research On Urban Rail Transit Travel Selection Based On Scenario Analysis

In recent years,with the rapid increase of the number of motor vehicles,the problem of urban traffic congestion is becoming more and more serious in China.To develop public transport,especially urban rail transit,the implementation of public transport priority is one of the effective measures to alleviate the problem of urban traffic congestion.At present,China’s major cities have invested heavily in the development of rail transit,but the overall service level of urban rail transit in China is low,the attraction is not enough,the share rate is low,and there is still a large space for improvement in the role of easing urban traffic congestion.Therefore,based on the principle of traffic scenario analysis,it is of great significance to research the theoretical method to effectively improve the ratio of travelers to choose urban rail transit,so as to improve the role of rail transit in alleviating the increasingly serious urban traffic congestion.Firstly,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of urban rail transit travel,defines the scenario analysis of urban rail transit travel selection based on the principle and method of traffic scenario analysis,and researches the scenario generation form,generation method and screening method.Then through the investigation of urban rail transit travel choice intention,based on the structural equation model analysis method,the urban rail transit trip selection scenario is generated,the probability distribution model of urban rail transit travel choice scenario based on moment matching technology is established,and the solution method of the model is given.Finally,taking Chongqing urban rail transit as an example,using the actual rail transit data,this paper constructs the probability distribution model of Chongqing rail transit travel choice scenario based on moment matching,and carries out the solution calculation,researches the specific impact of different scenario elements and their combinations of various influencing factors on the travelers’ choice of rail transit travel behavior,and points out that the main urban area of Chongqing is out of the city The reason why travelers choose urban rail transit is low.The research results show that: the network accessibility of Chongqing rail transit line is not high enough,the passenger flow of important stations is too large and disordered,the supporting facilities of some lines are not perfect,it is inconvenient to connect with other modes of transportation,and the ability to coordinate and manage special events is insufficient,which results in the low travel rate of choosing urban rail transit.According to this,the study puts forward four suggestions to improve the ratio of travelers to choose rail transit in the main urban areas of Chongqing.In this paper,the probability distribution model of urban rail transit travel choice scenario based on moment matching technology is established by using scenario analysis method.Based on the structural equation model analysis,the quantitative analysis is strengthened to make the analysis of influencing factors of urban rail transit travel more specific and accurate.The research results have a certain reference role in improving the attraction of urban rail transit and the theory and method of urban public transport operation and management.