| Energy consumption will steadily rise in coming years and if fossil fuels, particularly coal, continue to be the primary resource for electricity generation our planet is going to face many hardships. Solar energy is the most abundant resource available to humankind, and although solar generated power is still expensive, the technology is in a state of rapid development as governments strive to meet renewable energy goals as part of the effort to slow climate change and become less dependent on finite resources. However there are many valid concerns associated with integrating high levels of solar energy with the transmission grid due to the rapid changes in power output and voltage from photovoltaic generated electricity due to drops in the solar resource. Therefore, a study was conducted to address issues in this field of research by attempting to quantify the variability of solar irradiance at a specific area using a uniform grid of 45 irradiance sensors. Another goal of this study was to determine if fewer measurement stations could be used in the quantification of variability. This thesis addresses these issues by using the Sandia Variability Index and the dead band ramp algorithm in a statistical analysis on irradiance fluctuations in the regulation and sub-regulation time frames. A kriging method will be introduced which accurately predicts variability using only four stations. |
