Legalization of Marijuana and its Effect on Anticipated Use: A Test of Deterrence Theory

Recent research shows that approximately 30 percent of college students report using marijuana in the past year (SIUC, 2012:1). Not only is marijuana use common on college campuses, but it is the most frequently used illicit drug in the world (Erickson, Van Der Maas, and Hathaway, 2013:428). In the United States, public support for the legalization of marijuana for recreational use is substantial. In fact, a 2013 Gallup poll found that 58 percent of Americans favor legalization of marijuana (Swift, 2013:1). In response to such public support, both Colorado and Washington passed state initiatives in 2012 to legalize recreational use of marijuana for individuals aged 21 years and older. Moreover, while initially the federal government vowed to continue to enforce federal drug laws within these states, they have recently reversed that position.;Of course, along with these changes to marijuana laws come arguments from opponents of legalization about the negative impact of such laws. A commonly expressed concern about such policies is what effect they may have on the prevalence and incidence of marijuana use. Among some, it is commonly accepted that these laws will increase use as the fear of punishment is removed. The axiomatic assumption of such arguments is that strict laws against possession and use of marijuana are effective deterrents. However, previous research on deterrence suggests that this may not be the case. In fact, the relatively high prevalence rates for marijuana use on college campuses nationwide suggests that current laws do not deter some college students. If this is true, it may also be true that legalization will not significantly increase use among college students. Thus, this study examines the potential effect of legalization on the prevalence of marijuana use.;The current study found that marijuana use was relatively high with approximately 41 percent of respondents who self-reported using marijuana in the past 12 months. Additionally, approximately 55 percent of respondents reported using marijuana in their lifetime. This study also found that those who do not currently use marijuana are unlikely to use in the future even if marijuana were legal and legally available.