Prospect theory and crisis decision-making in the Middle East

The purpose of this investigation is to assess the applicability of prospect theory (PT) both as a theory of decision making under risk and uncertainty, and as a meaningful contribution to crisis management theory.; The objective of the study is to build on recent applications of PT to international crises by offering a unique methodology which would produce new evidence to either support or refute PT. The structured focused comparison method employed involves an in-depth examination of a limited number of cases analyzed within a common framework to ensure that the cases are approached by asking identical questions, thereby ensuring comparability. The common framework begins by identifying the decision structure and the decision maker(s), and the reference point for each crisis actor. Framing, risk, and preferences are discussed within a series of decision points, which represent crucial decisions made by a crisis participant which represents a substantial change, in either direction or degree, from previous decisions. This framework is applied to two case studies of Arab-Israeli conflict; the June War of 1967 and the October War of 1973.; The paper is structured into five chapters. The introduction outlines the basic questions to be addressed and explains the significance of the methodology and the case studies. Chapter 1, the literature review, introduces the two schools of decision making. The chapter concludes with an introduction to EU theory, and its rival, PT. Chapter 2 is the methodology section, which introduces the framework for the case studies as well as the foundations of the aggregate analysis. Chapters 3 and 4 are the two case studies. Chapter 5 tests PT by using statistical data gathered on a number of Arab-Israeli crises throughout the Cold War period. The conclusion will summarize the findings and discuss the implications for foreign policy and crisis management. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)...