Dynamic Risk Analysis Of Product Oil Storage Tank Modification Based On Bayesian Network

With the enhancement of people's awareness of environmental protection and safety as well as the explicit requirements of relevant national policies,the refined oil storage tank has been upgraded.During the construction of the system engineering for the transformation of the product oil storage tank,there are safety risks such as explosion,poisoning suffocation,collapse,leakage,lifting injury and electric shock,etc.Besides,the inflammable,explosive,volatile and easy to diffuse and flow of the oil products aggravate the possibility of safety risks in the transformation operation.Therefore,this article to dismantle and clear tank and protective pipe trench floor and tank farm to dismantle,old cans knocked down and sinotrans,the new tank foundation construction,the new tank,pipeline installation,site recovery steps of eight children as a starting point,the bayesian theory with analytic hierarchy process(ahp)and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,in product oil storage tanks modified dynamic risk analysis.This article mainly includes the following contents:(1)The safety risk evaluation index system of product oil storage tank is constructed.Delphi method,Fault Tree Analysis method and other risk identification tools were used to identify the risk factors in the product oil storage tank renovation project according to the construction sequence,and the risk evaluation index system was established based on the analytic hierarchy process.(2)The dynamic risk model of product oil storage tank modification was established.The static risk evaluation index system is transformed into a dynamic bayesian network reasoning structure.The analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the weight of each root node,and then the prior probability of basic events is obtained.Based on the forward inference of bayesian network,a conditional probability table is established to quantify the correlation between node variables.(3)Dynamic risk assessment of refined oil storage tank modification.According to the reasoning function of bayesian network,the event probability is updated,the risk level of root node is determined by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,and key events are identified based on risk importance and sensitivity importance.The dynamic probability of key events is determined by statistical event occurrence data,and then the probability of safety risk in the construction of refined oil storage tank reconstruction and the change of each accident consequence over time are updated,so as to realize dynamic risk analysis.(4)Risk response of refined oil storage tank renovation project.According to the results of dynamic risk analysis,risk management is implemented based on key events to reduce the possibility of risk occurrence during construction.The research on the dynamic risk analysis of the system engineering of refined oil storage tank transformation is carried out in this paper,which provides references for the implementation of risk management or the selection of construction schemes for similar and similar transformation projects,so as to improve the construction safety of the transformation projects.