Study On Urbanization And Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Southern Xinjiang

The Eighteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward two propositions: "strengthen the construction of ecological civilization" and "promote the construction of a new type of urbanization." General Secretary Xi of the 19th National Congress once again put forward the goal of working hard to build an "ecological civilization" and "beautiful China".The healthy and sustainable development of cities and towns points out the direction.Ecological civilization covers a wide range,of which water resources are an important consideration in urban construction.In order to achieve the coordinated development of urbanization and water resources carrying capacity in southern Xinjiang,this article is based on sustainable development theory,regional coordination theory,economic ecology theory,etc.Establish an evaluation index system for urbanization and water resources carrying capacity in southern Xinjiang.Firstly,the grey correlation analysis method is used to analyze the degree of correlation between the urbanization and water resources carrying capacity system of southern Xinjiang and its impact indicators from 2005 to 2018;secondly,with the help of SPSS and Arc GIS software,the indicators in the evaluation indicator system are calculated using the entropy method Weights and scores,combined with a coupled coordination model to evaluate the spatiotemporal characteristics of urbanization and water resources carrying capacity;Finally,calculate the relative water resources carrying capacity in southern Xinjiang,using Matlab and DPS software,applying the gray GM(1,N)model and BP The neural network model simulates the water resources carrying capacity value,and compares and analyzes the calculated value.conclusion as below:(1)The degree of urban development is extremely uneven,and the contribution rate of secondary and tertiary industries to regional GDP is not stable.The low efficiency of water resources development and utilization in southern Xinjiang,the lagging management level,and the continuous deterioration of the ecological environment have seriously affected the water ecological balance.(2)Factors such as the number of beds in medical and health institutions,the area of built-up areas,the size of urban population,the harmless rate of domestic garbage,and the number of teachers in secondary schools in urbanization indicators are highly correlated with the level of urbanization.The order of the grey correlation degree of water resources carrying capacity index is: Groundwater resources,water consumption per capita,surface water supply,water supply penetration rate,total water supply,drainage pipe density,primary industry water consumption,surface water resources and many more.(3)From a time point of view,the coupling degree and coordination degree of urbanization and water resources carrying capacity in southern Xinjiang are continually escalating,from barely coupling to advanced coupling,from dysfunctional decline to moderate coordination.From the perspective of spatial distribution,in 2005,the overall level of coordination between urbanization and water resources carrying capacity in southern Xinjiang was low,and the spatial distribution difference showed a trend from high to low from southeast to northwest;in 2009,urbanization and water resources The coupling coordination degree of bearing capacity is further improved from southwest to northeast;in 2013,the urbanization and water resources bearing capacity showed a slightly higher distribution in the west and south,and slightly lower in the east and north;2018,urbanization and water resources in southern Xinjiang The coupling coordination degree of bearing capacity shows a high-medium-low distribution from south to north.??(4)The gray GM(1,N)model considers the influence of population,economy,space,society and other factors on water resources carrying capacity,its data disturbance is larger,and the actual water resources carrying capacity error is slightly larger;The BP neural network model involves water resources,its data disturbance is small,and its calculation result is closer to the actual value of water resources carrying capacity.