Research On High-speed Rail And Civil Aviation Market Strategy Based On Evolutionary Game

With the rapid development of the national economy,the demand for transportation between cities increasing strong.The opening and development of high-speed railway has brought great impact to civil aviation and shaken its position in the high-speed passenger market.Many scholars have researched the competitive relationship between high-speed rail and civil aviation,and lack of cooperation research between them.Therefore,it is necessary to study the competitive and cooperation relationship between the two.Game theory is the most commonly used theoretical method for studying interactive relationships.Evolutionary game theory is a branch of game theory.It assumes that the game subject is bounded rationality,that is,the optimal strategy cannot be selected at the initial stage of interaction.T According to continuous learning and trial and error,the game subject is close to the optimal strategy.Studying market strategy choices for high-speed rail and civil aviation companies has a significant impact on the stable development of the high-speed passenger market.This paper aims at the market strategy selection of high-speed rail and civil aviation in the evolutionary game.Firstly,the research on the related fields is summarized from three aspects: the present situation of game theory applied to the high-speed rail and civil aviation market,the present situation of competition and cooperation between high-speed rail and civil aviation and the application of evolutionary game theory.Secondly,starting from related concepts and theories,game theory and evolutionary game theory are explained,and the applicability of the evolutionary game is analyzed.Thirdly,the competitive relationship and cooperative relationship between high-speed rail and civil aviation is analyzed.On this basis,constructs the game model of high-speed rail and civil aviation evolution with competition and cooperation as the market strategy is constructed,the evolution trend of high-speed rail and civil aviation and the evolution stability strategy and state of the system are discussed by using differential equation and Jacobian matrix.The results show that the evolution trend of high-speed rail and civil aviation is influenced by the probability that the other party chooses the cooperation strategy,and there are three kinds of evolution results,cooperation,competition,competition or cooperation;the high-speed passenger transport market has two stabilization strategies and two evolutional stabilization states: both of competition and both of cooperation;when high-speed rail and civil aviation choose cooperation as their market strategy,excess revenue and costs it produced has a monotonic effect on the evolution of equilibrium state: the higher the excess return,the lower the cost,and the more obvious the trend in choosing a cooperation strategy.Besides,the distribution ratio of the two in excess returns has a non-monotonic effect on the evolution equilibrium.Finally,this paper takes the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway and the Beijing-Shanghai route as the research object,establishes the evolution game model of the market strategy choice between Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway and Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway,analyzes the upper limit of the net loss when the high-speed rail and civil aviation cooperate unilaterally.In addition,under the established condition that the high-speed passenger transport market evolves stable state is win-win cooperation,daily average net loss range for high-speed rail and civil aviation is discussed.Based on this,reasonable suggestions are made for the coordinated development of high-speed rail and civil aviation.