Evolutionary Game Analysis Of Air-Rail Competition Strategy Based On SD Model

Since the 21 st century,with the continuous development of China ’s economy and the improvement of the development level of the transportation industry,the civil aviation transportation industry and the railway transportation industry have achieved great development.The coopetition relationship between the two has become one of the hot research fields.On the one hand,the overlap of civil aviation and high-speed rail in business makes it increasingly fierce in the competition for customer resources.On the other hand,as China ’s transportation infrastructure is becoming more and more complete,the number of airports and high-speed rail stations is increasing,and the policy guidance issued by the state makes the two show a certain complementarity on the network.In this context,it is necessary to study the competition and cooperation relationship between civil aviation high-speed rail.This thesis first sorts out the domestic and foreign research results on the competition and cooperation relationship between the civil aviation transportation industry and the high-speed rail transportation industry,and summarizes the research status and research methods used by the predecessors on the competition and cooperation relationship between the two.On the basis of the existing literature,use the evolutionary game theory to analyze the competition and cooperation relationship between the two,determine the basic assumptions and parameter settings of the evolutionary game model,and calculate the payment of the two under the choice of different strategies.function,introduce the copy dynamic equation to solve the equilibrium point of the evolution model,and analyze the stability of each equilibrium point under different scenarios through the value and trace of the Jacobian matrix,and complete the establishment of the evolutionary game model.Secondly,the system dynamics simulation analysis is carried out through Vensim software,and various situations in the system are simulated,and the influence of changes in parameters such as initial input cost,loss of income,additional income,liquidated damages,and defaulted income on the evolution of the system is discussed.Finally,according to the simulation results,relevant suggestions on how to promote the coordinated development between the two are put forward.This thesis draws the following conclusions :(1)The two sides are mainly affected by two factors in the choice of strategy.The first factor is the net income difference when choosing cooperation or competition strategy.The larger the difference value,the greater the benefits that the two sides can obtain in the process of cooperation.The second factor is that if the two sides in the process of cooperation in the event of a breach of contract,the defaulting party can withstand the loss of income value,the greater the loss value,the greater the risk of the two sides in the process of cooperation,the two sides will be more inclined to choose the competitive strategy.(2)in the process of cooperation,factors such as initial input cost,loss of income,and default income are negatively correlated with the stability of civil aviation and high-speed rail cooperation.The initial willingness to cooperate,additional benefits,and liquidated damages are positively correlated with the stability of civil aviation and high-speed rail cooperation.In the end,the article puts forward strategic suggestions to promote the coordinated development between the two from the government level and the company level.