Research On Bonded Fuel Market Demand Forcast Of Z Company Under The Background Of Sulfur Limit

With rapid development of global shipping industry,the environmental pollution caused by ships at sea has attracted more and more attention.For this reason,the World Maritime Organization(IMO)held a meeting and decided to officially implement the emission limit of sulfur content of marine fuel oil no more than 0.5% m/m from January 1,2020,with the aim of reducing the sulfur emission of marine fuel oil,realizing clean ship fuel power system,and better protecting the earth's atmospheric environment.For ship owners and marine fuel oil supply companies,strict sulfur limit has really become a big challenge in the history of their own industry.Focusing on the market demand forecast of Z company's bonded fuel oil under the background of sulfur limit,it is pointed out Z company's development direction under the background of sulfur restriction in this paper.The sulfur limit and market demand forecast related research results at home and abroad is summarized in this paper,and it describes the sulfur limit and bonded fuel oil policy,market demand prediction theory and method in detail,to lay a good foundation for the this paper.Secondly,the basic situation of Z company and sulfur limit impact on its production and operation activities is introduced,focusing on analyzing how the sulfur limit influences Z company's competition environment,purchasing environment,and the present situation of Z company bonded fuel market demand.At the same time,the influence factors of market demand and sulfur limit's impact on the market demand of Z company is introduced.Subsequently,it attempts to establish a combination prediction model based on exponential smoothing,ARIMA,and multiple linear regression analysis in the way of weighted combination,so as to predict the bonded fuel oil market demand of Z company under the background of sulfur limit,and it is concluded that the market demand will rise steadily and years peak demand will go down.In the process of multiple regression analysis,it is concluded that the bonded fuel market price and the number of foreign ships in and out of Q port are the most important factors affecting the bonded fuel market demand.Finally,in view of the impact of sulfur restriction policy and the results of demand forecasting,this paper put forwards countermeasures and suggestions such asestablishing price advantage,expanding new markets,strengthening compliance operation and self-protection,and improving oil bunkering efficiency.