Research On The Regional System Resilience Of Human-Sea Relationship In The Bohai Rim

The regional system of human-sea relationship is the theoretical achievement of the development of the regional system of human-land relationship to the sea.In the process of dynamic evolution,the regional system of human-sea relationship constantly appears new era connotation.Scientific measurement of the regional system elasticity of human-sea relationship is the basis of seeking to coordinate the contradiction between "man" and "sea","land" and "sea",and also the key to realize regional sustainable development.On the basis of grasping the domestic and international resilience research theories and research status,this paper divides the evolution process of the regional system of human-sea relationship into three stages,from the three aspects of resistance-adaptation-transformation to construct the three dimensions of economy,society and resource environment.On the basis of grasping the domestic and international resilience research theories and research status,this paper divides the evolution process of the regional system of human-sea relations into three stages,from the three aspects of resistance-adaptation-transformation to construct the three dimensions of economy,society and resource environment.The constituted index system uses the hierarchical multi-level comprehensive analysis method to comprehensively evaluate the resilience of the human-sea system in the 17 coastal cities around the Bohai Rim region from2000 to 2017,and uses the obstacle model and the ARIMA model to evaluate the human-sea system in the Bohai Rim region.Analysis of obstacle factors and early warning analysis were carried out on the resilience of relational geographic system.conclusion as below:(1)On the whole,the overall resilience of the human-sea relational system in the Bohai Rim region has continued to increase.In 18 years,it has achieved a leap from low resilience to high-resilience.The human-sea relational system,the human-sea economic system and the human-sea social system resilience maintains a steady upward trend.Among them,the fluctuation of the human-sea economic system resilience index is roughly consistent with the human-sea relationship regional system resilience index,and the social development resilience index has the largest increase;the human-sea resource environmental system resilience index shows repeated fluctuations and an overall upward trend.Among them,the human-sea social system entered a much more high resilience development stage ahead of the human-sea relational geographic system and the human-sea economic system in 2013,while the human-sea resources and environmental system entered a much more high resilience development stage from the medium-resilience development stage in 2014 and then in 2015.Returned to the medium elastic development stage in the year.(2)From the perspective of different dimensional and different ability elements,the human-sea resource and environmental system resistance capacity varies slightly between regions,showing a "gradient" differentiation feature with a gradual decrease in north-west-south resistance.The human-sea economic system has weak adaptability and small regional differences.The transformation ability of the human-sea social system is outstanding,and the regional differences show the characteristics of "clustering" differentiation.(3)The resilience of the regional system of human-sea relations in the Bohai Rim has developed steadily and steadily,which is divided into three gradients.The first echelon belongs to the highly resilience stage area,which is Tianjin City.The second echelon belongs to the medium resilience stage area,including Dalian,Qingdao,Dongying,Yantai,and Weihai.The resilience of the regional system of human-sea relations in these cities generally presents a mode of evolution from the intermediate stage to the advanced stage.The third echelon belongs to the low resilience stage area,including Tangshan,Qinhuangdao,Cangzhou,Dandong,Yingkou,Panjin,Huludao,Weifang,and Binzhou.These cities generally present a model of evolution from the initial stage to the intermediate stage of the resilience of the regional system of human-sea relations.(4)From 2000 to 2017,the resilience of the regional system of human-sea relations in the Bohai Rim was mainly affected by the economic development and social development,and turned to the dual pressure of resources,environment and social development as the main restrictive factors.And from the perspective of criteria,the resistance of each subsystem gradually decreases,the adaptability and conversion ability gradually increase,and gradually replace the resistance ability to become the main factor restricting the overall resilience development of the regional system of human-sea relationship in the Bohai Rim region.From the perspective of provincial regions,there are obvious differences in the factors that affect the elastic development of the regional system of people sea relationship in the Bohai Rim region from 2000 to 2017.Therefore,special attention should be paid to the unique development of the regional system resilience of the relationship between the people and the sea.(5)It is expected that from 2018 to 2022,the overall resilience of the regional system of human-sea relationship will keep rising steadily,and it will enter the state of light alarm in2019.Each subsystem will start to adjust and change its own structure to actively adapt to all kinds of disturbances,and each subsystem will tend to balance the evolution process.In the future,in the process of high-quality development of marine economy and new-type urbanization,the Bohai Rim region will also pay more attention to the green development and protection of resources and environment,so as to form a benign interactive cycle among the economic development,resources and environment and social development of the regional system of human-sea relationship,and improve the overall resilience of the system.