Research On The Risk Assessment Model Of Drought Disaster In Guanzhong Plain

Drought disaster is one of the main natural disasters in our country,which affects human activities to varying degrees and restricts the agricultural,industrial production and economic development of human society.Located in the central part of Shaanxi Province,the Guanzhong Plain is a densely populated and economically developed area in Shaanxi Province.Drought disasters are the main natural disasters in the Guanzhong Plain.The drought disaster risk assessment was carried out to provide reference for drought disaster risk management.The thesis takes the Guanzhong Plain as the research area,analyzed the evolution process of historical drought disasters based on historical data and drought index,established a drought disaster risk assessment index system,built a drought disaster risk assessment model,and evaluated the drought disaster risk based on the model.Developed a drought disaster risk assessment system.The paper mainly achieved the following results:(1)A risk assessment index system for drought disasters in the Guanzhong Plain was established.Based on historical data of drought disasters,the historical drought disasters in the Guanzhong Plain from 1519 to 2018 were evaluated.The results show that drought disasters have occurred frequently in the Guanzhong Plain for the past 500 years,and the degree of drought has been on the rise.The drought disaster risk elements were identified from four aspects:hazard risk,disaster-causing factors,disaster-preparing environment,disaster-bearing bodies and disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities,and established a drought disaster risk assessment index system,including 4 first-level indicators and 12 second-level indicators.(2)A risk assessment model for drought disasters in the Guanzhong Plain was constructed.Based on the drought disaster risk assessment index system,the weight of each index is determined by the method of combining AHP and entropy weight method,and the drought disaster risks in different regions of the Guanzhong Plain are obtained based on the grey relation analysis.The results show that there are big differences in the risk of drought disasters in the Guanzhong Plain at different time and space scales.Through comparative analysis with actual drought disasters,the results are consistent.Finally,the drought disaster response measures are proposed from two aspects of engineering measures and non-engineering measures.(3)A risk assessment system for drought disasters in the Guanzhong Plain was established.Based on a comprehensive integrated platform,a risk assessment system for drought disasters in the Guanzhong Plain was built,using technologies including knowledge visualization,components and data warehouses.Taking the drought disaster risk assessment in the Guanzhong Plain during 2014-2018 as an example,the system is applied to realize the process description and visual expression of the drought disaster risk assessment process,and provide technical support for drought disaster risk management and drought relief and mitigation in the Guanzhong Plain.