| Over the past 100 years,human social activities have led to a continuous rise in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmospheric environment.At present,China's carbon emissions rank first in the world,accounting for about 30%of global emissions.In order to shoulder the responsibility of reducing emissions,China promises to reach the peak of carbon emissions by 2030,and the carbon intensity(emissions per unit of GDP)in 2030 will be 60-65% lower than the 2005 level.The key to completing the 2030 emission reduction mission and peak targets is that the province's emission reduction responsibilities have not yet been determined.Based on the analysis of China's carbon emission status and regional development status,this paper constructs a multi-standard provincial carbon emission reduction allocation model,and uses the Zero-sum Gains Data Envelopment Analysis model to propose the optimal inter-provincial differential distribution plan to achieve China's low carbon emission target.At the same time,it provides reference for regional share allocation research,and finally provides policy recommendations to scientifically establish an emissions trading system.The main contents of the article include:(1)Based on China's overall policy background and industry characteristics,predict China's carbon dioxide emissions based on the 2030 emission reduction target and future annual GDP growth rate,and analyze China's current energy consumption,carbon emissions distribution status and current situation.At the same time,the traditional DEA model and the multi-standard principle and its indicators are used to evaluate the current allocation efficiency.(2)Construct an inter-provincial carbon dioxide emission initial allocation model based on the grandfather principle,and perform initial provincial decomposition of carbon dioxide emission peaks according to historical emissions of each province.At the same time,the traditional DEA model and the application of multi-standard principles and their indicators are used to evaluate the current domestic allocation efficiency;(3)Use the zero-sum data envelopment analysis model to adjust the initial allocation of carbon emission reduction,thereby promoting the effective allocation and implementation of the 2030 emission reduction target,and comparing the collated situation with the initial results of the traditional DEA model.,thus drawing a preliminary conclusion.The above analysis shows that compared with the initial grandfather principle allocation result,the zero-sum data envelopment analysis DEA model is used for reallocation,the carbon emission quotas of inefficient provinces such as Jilin and Heilongjiang are reduced,and the emission quotas of effective provinces such as Jiangxi and Fujian are increased,and the emission allocation is increased.Quotas in all provinces will become effective.Therefore,based on the redistribution of the zero-sum data envelopment analysis model,the province with the largest carbon dioxide emission allowance is Shandong Province.In comparison,Qinghai has the smallest carbon dioxide emission quota.Compared with 2016,the carbon intensity of the 15 provinces has increased,which means that they will face little pressure on carbon dioxide emission reduction(such as Fujian).The decline in carbon intensity in 13 provinces(such as Anhui)means that by 2030 these provinces will face greater pressure to meet their emissions targets.At the regional level,the carbon intensity in the Northeast will drop significantly(-7.22%)between 2016 and 2030,indicating that it will experience the largest reduction pressures by 2030. |
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