| China's urban rail transit construction has developed rapidly and healthily in the 13 th Five Year Plan period.According to the prediction of industry experts,by 2030,the national urban rail transit operation mileage will reach about 6500 km.There are many ways of urban rail transit,but subway is the main form of urban rail transit.Subway engineering has many characteristics,such as large construction investment,long construction period,complex construction environment,many unforeseen risk factors,huge accident losses and so on.Therefore,before the formal construction of subway projects in China,owners will choose to purchase all risks insurance for construction and installation projects.According to the actual investigation,in the current subway construction insurance,the insurer and the insured usually use the similar case comparison method when calculating the insurance premium,which has many experience elements,the calculation process is not precise enough,and lacks objective scientific basis.After consulting the relevant literature,domestic scholars on the subway construction insurance research is relatively small,existing research,its theoretical.In view of this problem,on the basis of the actual investigation,this paper intends to carry out the relevant research on the determination of insurance premium under the premise of scientific evaluation of subway construction risk.Based on the work structure decomposition of subway engineering,this paper identifies the construction risk of subway engineering within the insurance liability.In order to reduce the subjectivity of risk assessment,fuzzy quantitative method is used to quantify the probability of each risk event and the possible maximum loss degree,and then combined with the mathematical means of de fuzzification,the fuzzy number is transformed into a certain value.At the same time,in order to make the determination of the insurance rate of subway project more in line with the actual situation,based on the assumption of "economic man",this paper constructs the benefit functions of the policyholder and the insurer respectively.Based on the principle of game theory,considering the occurrence probability of risk events,the maximum loss degree,the deductible and the insurance market,a dynamic game model for the determination of the insurance rate is established The multi-stage dynamic game makes the utility of the policy holder and the insurer reach a Nash equilibrium point,and obtains the optimal deductible and premium which are consistent with the optimal utility of the policy holder and the insurer at the same time.At the same time,in order to achieve the refinement of the subway engineering insurance rate determination,this paper uses the idea of sub item determination and comprehensive summary to improve the accuracy of the rate determination.Finally,taking the bid section 2 of Nanchang Metro Line 4 as an example,based on the above scheme,the comprehensive pure risk rate of the station is 5.261‰,the comprehensive deductible for each accident is 1.1643 million yuan,the comprehensive pure risk rate of the tunnel section is 5.628 ‰,and the comprehensive deductible for each accident is 1.6291 million yuan.According to the insurance data of other bid sections of Nanchang Metro,the extraction proportion of the additional rate is set The underwriting rate of Nanchang Metro Line 4 bid section 2 is 6.765‰.Based on the game theory,this paper considers the probability of risk events,the maximum loss,the deductible and the insurance market,and establishes a premium rate determination model to make up for the shortcomings of the traditional static premium rate determination,and adopts the idea of itemized determination and comprehensive summary,which improves the accuracy of premium rate determination.The research of this paper provides a more scientific way for the determination of China's engineering insurance rate,and provides a new idea for the study of the determination of engineering insurance rate. |
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