Study On Subway Emergency Evacuation Choice Behavior Considering The Influence Of Latent Variables

Subway safety is an important issue in the field of public safety which cannot be ignored.In-depth study on the evacuation process of pedestrians is the premise of formulating a reasonable and effective emergency evacuation plan.The existing researches mainly apply the microscopic models represented by the social force model,cellular automata model and agent-based evacuation model,which often assume that pedestrians have a complete grasp of evacuation information and choose the shortest path in time or space in the evacuation process.However,in reality,it is impossible to guarantee that all evacuated pedestrians choose the space-time shortest path.Moreover,most of the introduced psychological parameters are simple constants,and there is a lack of in-depth research on the introduction method.In order to solve the problem that the hypothesis of the space-time shortest evacuation path of the microscopic model is inconsistent with the reality and the introduction of psychological parameters is too simple.This study will use the hybrid choice model,based on the decision rule of random utility maximization,to explore the path choice behavior of pedestrians affected by psychological factors in the evacuation process.On the one hand,through in-depth analysis of pedestrian path choice behavior,this study provides a reference for the existing micro model to make it closer to the real situation.On the other hand,the psychological factor is no longer the preset constant,but the result of factor analysis of a large number of data,which aims to further improve the micro model of subway emergency evacuation and provide theoretical support for the formulation of a reasonable and effective emergency evacuation plan.First of all,through reading the literature,it summarizes the factors that significantly affect the evacuation effect in the research of micro model,taking gender,age,education level and so on as the personal attribute variables of pedestrians,and taking panic,information dependence,environmental familiarity,safety awareness,submissive attitude and group psychology as the psychological latent variables that affect the pedestrian path choice,aiming at the subway non exchange,respectively The questionnaire was designed for passenger station and transfer station,and data collection was completed in several subway stations in Beijing and Shanghai.Secondly,considering the different psychological characteristics of different groups of people,this study uses the structural equation model to construct the structural relationship between personal attributes and latent variables,and between the latent variables of pedestrians in non transfer stations and transfer stations respectively,explores the formation mechanism of pedestrian subway emergency evacuation psychology,and quantitatively analyzes the relationship between personal attributes and psychological latent variables.The results show that pedestrians have the same psychological process in different types of stations,and it is found that the difference of the influence of different pedestrian psychological latent variables comes from the heterogeneity of personal attributes.Finally,the adaptive value of psychological latent variables is introduced into the traditional discrete choice model,and the hybrid choice model of subway emergency evacuation is established.The behavior of pedestrian's path choice in non transfer station and transfer station is analyzed respectively,and it is compared with the multiple logit models without considering the influence of latent variables.The results show that the hybrid choice model with the influence of latent variables can improve the response of subway In addition to age,occupation,income and other personal attributes,panic,information dependence,environmental familiarity,safety awareness and submissive attitude and other latent variables can also significantly affect the path choice of pedestrians in the evacuation process,that is,the path choice behavior of pedestrians is double affected by personal attributes and psychological latent variables.