The Impact Of Crude Oil Price Fluctuation On China's Economy Situation

Since the beginning of 2020,the new coronavirus has led to the outbreak of a century rare public health and security crisis.Countries around the world have adopted compulsory closure policies to curb the spread,which has led to serious production stoppage and economic decline.As a result,the price of crude oil based energy has dropped sharply due to the decline of demand,and it is expected that the price will remain low for a long time.This paper takes this as a starting point,and hopes to build a corresponding model based on historical data to predict the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on China's macro-economy.This paper first studies the direction and level of the impact of crude oil price shocks on China's major macroeconomic variables by constructing SVAR model,and then creatively introduces the long-term asymmetric cointegration relationship model constructed by schorderet to study the difference in the impact of crude oil price rise and fall on economic growth and price level in the long run.Finally,we find that the fluctuation of crude oil price will cause the GDP growth rate and inflation level to change in the same direction,and the impact of crude oil price rise on the economy is significantly higher than that of crude oil price declineThrough the above research,this paper reasonably analyzes the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on China's macro-economy under the epidemic situation,and puts forward corresponding suggestions for the macro and micro levels.