Study On Sustainable Development Evaluation And Regulation Path Of Coal Consumption In Shandong Province

In order to handle the problem of global warming,it is urgent to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.Coal consumption is the main source of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere,and coal consumption must be strictly controlled.Since 201 1,China’s coal consumption has accounted for about 50%of global coal consumption.Shandong Province consumes huge amounts of energy and is also the province with the largest coal consumption in China.It accounts for about one-tenth of the country’s coal consumption,ranking first in the country.At the same time,coal consumption has also caused serious environmental problems such as smog and acid rain.Therefore,under the severe background of global warming and carbon control,in order to achieve the carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality,how to scientifically plan the coal consumption in Shandong Province during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and find the main path to regulate coal consumption is particularly important.The thesis takes the typical province of coal consumption-Shandong Province as the research object,and adopts sustainable development index evaluation,system dynamics(SD),structural equation modeling(SEM)and scenario analysis,according to the research idea of "Retrospective Evaluation—Identification of Influencing Factors—Consumption Forecast—Analysis of Control Paths" Research methods,explore a sustainable development path for coal consumption in Shandong Province.First,construct the evaluation index system for the sustainable development of coal consumption in Shandong Province from the four dimensions of energy,economy,environment and society,and combine the variable weight method with the TOPSIS method to construct a comprehensive index of sustainable development of coal consumption,and evaluate the sustainable development trend of coal consumption in the past ten years.The research results show that although the sustainable development level of coal consumption in Shandong Province has experienced a short-term decline in the early stage,the overall development trend is rising,and it has entered a better state of development from a poor state.According to the comparative analysis of the factors affecting the sustainable development of coal consumption in Shandong Province,it is found that measures such as slowing down the economic development speed,adjusting the economic structure,accelerating the transformation of the economic development model,improving energy efficiency and promoting central heating are conducive to the sustainable development of coal consumption in Shandong Province.Secondly,based on the analysis of the impact factors of sustainable development evaluation,determine the latent variables and obvious variables that affect coal consumption,construct the Shandong Province coal consumption SEM,and calculate the coefficients of each regulation path.The research results show that there are five main control paths to achieve the sustainable development of coal consumption in Shandong Province,which are GDP growth rate,population,proportion of secondary industry,urbanization rate,and industrial sulfur dioxide emissions.Third,select the coal consumption data of Shandong Province in the past 19 years to construct a SD model to predict the coal consumption of Shandong Province in the future planning years.On this basis,a sensitivity analysis is carried out to find the key factors affecting the coal consumption system.Finally,by comparing the results of SD sensitivity analysis and SEM path analysis,it is found that although the perspectives adopted by the two methods are different,the key factors affecting coal consumption have a certain degree of overlap.These overlap variables should be the key variable restricting coal consumption in Shandong Province Therefore,this paper takes these factors as the object of scenario analysis,designs schemes according to three different schemes of low,medium and high,and forecasts the coal consumption according to different combinations,and discusses the main scenario development mode of completing the coal reduction index in the future planning year.The results show that the combination scenarios of GM-IM-EH-PM and GM-IH-EM-PM can not only ensure the appropriate economic development in Shandong Province in the future planning years,but also improve the environmental governance to a certain extent,and the completion rate of the reduction task is more than 1.2,which is more suitable for the future development of Shandong Province.In addition,the study found that the appropriate development ranges of the average GDP growth rate,the proportion of the secondary industry,the energy consumption intensity of the secondary industry and the proportion of the industrial pollution control investment in GDP in Shandong Province during the 14th Five-Year Plan period are 5.5%～5.6%,31%-32%,0.58～0.60,1.54～1.56,respectively.