Application Of Monte Carlo Method In Investment Risk Analysis Of Urban Sewage PPP Project

Under the background of PPP mode as the main investment and financing mode in the field of urban infrastructure,a large number of private capital has entered the field of urban infrastructure construction.Compared with the government as the sole investor in infrastructure projects in the past,private capital is more sensitive to the project investment risk after entering the infrastructure field,and it is more urgent to grasp the investment risk in the early stage of the project.This dissertation first introduces the basic concepts of PPP model and project operation mode,and then summarizes and compares the theory and method of project investment risk analysis.Secondly,on the basis of expounding the basic principle and the technical and economic characteristics of the specific municipal sewage industry,this dissertation compares the traditional analysis method with Monte Carlo method,focusing on the basic principles,characteristics,advantages and disadvantages of analysis and judgment of Monte Carlo method.The superiority of Monte Carlo method is preliminarily judged theoretically,and the basic conception and frame design of the method are carried out in the actual project application.Finally,the method is applied to the project investment risk analysis with the help of a practical sewage plant PPP project.This dissertation uses variable sampling to simulate input calculation from several aspects of project construction investment and operation cost,and obtains the result that the financial risk of this project is small.The results not only have important guiding significance for this project,but also have certain reference value for the investment risk analysis of similar projects.At the end of this dissertation,the conclusions and suggestions of the application of Monte Carlo method in the investment risk analysis of specific projects are given.