| In the context of the comprehensive promotion of ethanol gasoline,ethanol gasoline will become the only choice for private cars in some provinces and cities,and oil refining companies also need to adjust their production and operations according to the latest national requirements.At present,China's ethanol gasoline development level is still at the top of the world.The gap,fuel ethanol production capacity has a long distance between production and demand,lack of production capacity,imperfect policies and other issues,is an important factor restricting the promotion of ethanol gasoline in China.At the same time,the development of ethanol gasoline will have a technical impact on oil refining companies,technical impact Economic impact and risks are also issues that deserve attention.In order to study the impact of comprehensive promotion of ethanol gasoline on oil refining enterprises,the text follows the idea of technical and economic analysis,first analyzing the technical impact of ethanol gasoline production and blending on oil refining enterprises,and then analyzing the economic impact according to the technical impact.After sorting out the production process and comparing the process technology required for ethanol gasoline production,it is believed that the technical impact of the development of ethanol gasoline on oil refining companies is mainly reflected in mtbe conversion,new alkylation,new isomerization,changes in vapor pressure adjustment,storage and transportation,etc.5 According to the characteristics of the response technology,this article sets the conversion of mtbe to isooctane,mtbe to isobutene,new alkylation and new isomerization as key technologies,and according to the classification of these five major technical impacts,six technical solutions are proposed at the same time.Respond to this: the scheme based on the conversion of mtbe to isooctane,the scheme based on the conversion of mtbe to isobutene,the scheme based on the newly-built alkylation,the scheme based on the newly-built isomerization,and the scheme based on the newly-built isomerization,and the combination of the conversion from mtbe to isooctane Isomerization-based technical scheme and mtbe conversion to isobutylene combined with alkylation-based scheme.Sensitivity analysis was performed on 6 technical schemes to determine the sensitivity of uncertain factors such as ethanol gasoline prices,and screened out as a Monte Carlo simulation Sensitive factors of variables;determine the break-even price and evaluate the degree of risk of technical solutions;use Monte Carlo simulation to conduct profitability simulation of the program to further determine profitability and sensitivity factors.The research shows that different technical schemes should establish different evaluation models.The sensitivity factors of the six schemes that do not contain a technical combination are concentrated on the price of ethanol gasoline,the tax rate and the raw material price of each scheme,the operating rate,and the fuel ethanol.Factors such as price have relatively little effect on technical solutions;the breakeven price of technical solutions 1,2 is lower than the market price,and the breakeven price of technical solutions 4,5,6 is higher than the market price;the technical solutions based on mtbe conversion The risk level is lower than the risk of technical solutions based on alkylation and isomerization;mtbe chooses to convert isobutene to less risk than choosing to convert isooctane;under the current market prices and policies of various products and raw materials,options 1-6 The overall profitability is not high,which means that the full promotion of ethanol gasoline requires oil refining companies to bear part of the cost. |
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