Research On Coal Dispatching Scheme Considering Multimodal Transportation

Coal resources occupy a very important position in China's energy system,and the distribution of coal resources in China is characterized by polarization.The coal production areas are mostly located in the northwest of China,while the consumption areas are mostly located in the southeast of China.Based on the actual situation of coal transportation in China,this thesis analyzes the coal transportation mode,and studies the coal transportation scheme considering multimodal transportation under the existing coal transportation network.The main work of this thesis is as follows:(1)Analyze the competitiveness of different modes of transportation.Through the transportation volume and market share rate of transportation modes,this thesis analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of various transportation modes,determines the influencing factors of coal transportation modes,and constructs a multi-item Logit model based on the generalized cost function of coal transportation.Through the market share rate of different coal transportation modes,this thesis analyzes the competitiveness of different transportation modes.The analysis shows that the unit transportation cost has a great influence on the market share rate of road and railway transportation modes.Transportation speed has a great influence on the market share rate of waterways.(2)Study on the modeling and optimization method on coal transportation scheme considering multimodal transportation.Aiming at the optimization problem of coal transportation route,this thesis analyzes the present situation and transportation mode of coal transportation,considers the cost of coal transportation,formulates a model with coal transportation quantity as decision variable and aims at minimizing the whole process cost of coal transportation,and proposes a heuristic algorithm based on Dijkstra algorithm to obtain the initial solution set,and designs a hybrid algorithm combining genetic algorithm with simulated annealing algorithm,which is realized by Matlab software.(3)Forecast coal demand.In the actual operation,considering the transportation scheme of multimodal transport needs to make a scientific and reasonable prediction of coal transportation.By means of regression analysis,exponential smoothing,grey prediction and dynamic neural network,the coal consumption of some provinces is predicted with the existing coal data.The coal demand of some provinces in China in 2023 is predicted by combining optimization methods to integrate the results of various forecasting methods.(4)Algorithm implementation and example verification.Considering the solution of coal transportation scheme with multimodal transport,taking some coal production areas in Inner Mongolia,Shanxi and Shaanxi as the background of coal transportation cases,based on the coal transportation quantity predicted by combination optimization algorithm and based on the existing coal transportation network,a better coal transportation scheme with multimodal transport is obtained.