Impact Of Carbon Quota Management Policies On The Price Of Carbon Emission Rights And Its Volatility

With the excessive use of globalized stone energy and excessive emissions of greenhouse gases,problems such as extreme weather and environmental pollution have occurred frequently,which has had a serious impact on human life and production.In order to solve the environmental problems caused by excessive carbon dioxide-based greenhouse gas emissions,people have built a carbon emissions trading market to achieve a sustainable development model of low-carbon economy and green economy.Carbon emissions trading is a means of reducing emissions by using carbon dioxide emission rights as trading commodities to increase the trading partners’ awareness of emission reduction through a market-based mechanism.In order to fulfill China’s emission reduction commitments and achieve sustainable economic growth,China actively explores and builds a carbon market,from the deployment of each carbon pilot market in 2011 to the start-up and operation of each pilot in 2013 to the national unified carbon market by the end of 2017 the establishment reflects the determination of China to reduce emissions.However,the carbon market is essentially a policy-driven market,and the announcement of relevant policies will inevitably have an impact on the behavior of companies that control emissions in the market,which in turn will affect market prices.Therefore,the study of the effectiveness and robustness of carbon market policies is essential to improve and develop China’s unified carbon market.In order to illustrate the effectiveness of the carbon market policy,this paper takes eight domestic carbon pilot markets as research objects and uses the average daily transaction price of the pilot area as the research basis to analyze the price and price volatility of the announcement of the carbon quota management policy in the market.This article starts from the concepts related to carbon emission rights,points out the policy attributes and mandatory characteristics of carbon trading,summarizes the mechanism of carbon quota management policies affecting prices,and then analyzes the basic operation of China’s carbon pilot market to study the market in each pilot area in terms of start-up time,offset mechanism,entry threshold and enterprise coverage,quota allocation model,cumulative transaction volume and transaction volume in each pilot market.Secondly,based on the event analysis method,this paper analyzes the impact of market policies at the three stages of carbon quota management in the market operation on the carbon prices of the pilot carbon markets at the national level.All have a significant impact on carbon trading prices,and it can also be found that different carbon markets have different price performance characteristics under the influence of the same policy,and the same carbon market has different price performance under the influence of policies in different periods.Third,after the announcement of the carbon market policy will cause the carbon trading price to fluctuate,the paper will also use the three policy events divided in the event analysis method as the background and add variables to analyze the impact of carbon quota management policies on the price volatility of each pilot market.Research shows that although the price volatility of each pilot market has changed during the three policy research periods,the reasons for the volatility changes in different carbon markets in the same policy and the same carbon market in different policies are different.Moreover,the policy dummy variable coefficients in all empirical results are not significant,which can indicate that the announcement of my country’s carbon quota management policy will not aggravate or reduce the fluctuation of carbon emission rights prices.Finally,this article proposes countermeasures to promote the development and improvement of my country’s unified carbon market.