The Cause Analysis Of Construction Safety Accidents Based On Bayesian Network

With the growth of the economy and the acceleration of urbanization,the construction industry has become the pillar industry of the national economy.However,with the rapid development of the construction industry,a large number of safety accidents have occurred and caused serious consequences.Therefore,how to prevent the occurrence of safety accidents and ensure the realization of construction safety objectives has become an important problem to be solved urgently.To systematically analyze the occurrence mechanism of construction safety accidents,a total of 2005 investigation reports of construction safety accidents from 2005 to 2019 were collected and used to study the causes and their correlation of construction safety accidents by using systems thinking,association rules,Bayesian networks and other methods.Firstly,a descriptive statistical analysis of 2005 construction safety accidents was conducted from four aspects of accident levels,accident types,accident time characteristics and accident causes,revealing the basic rules of the accidents.Then,based on system thinking and accident cause theory,the construction safety accident cause system was constructed.According to the principle of “system-subsystem-factorsub-factor”,the system was divided into six subsystems,including organization and behavior subsystem,technical management subsystem,resource security subsystem,contract management subsystem,safety training subsystem and environmental management subsystem.Secondly,the association rule method was used to excavate the association between accident cause and other causes and to form the association network of accident cause.After that,the Bayesian network model was established by using Ge NIe2.0 software.On the basis of verifying the validity of the model,reverse inference,sensitivity analysis,and influence strength analysis were carried out,and three causal chains and sensitivity factors leading to the accident were obtained.Finally,combined with the accident prevention theory,16 crucial causes were classified into three categories: education and training,engineering technology and safety management,and relevant preventive measures are proposed to provide a reference for improving safety management and preventing accidents at the construction site.