Research On The Decoupling Between Carbon Emissions And Economic Growth In Key Industrial Sectors In China:Decoupling State And Driving Factors

Since the reform and opening up,China’s industrial economy gets swift and violent development.The added value of China’s industry has increased from 12 billion yuan in 1952 to over 30 trillion yuan in 2018.Today,China’s industrial economy is the largest in the world and an important engine of global industrial growth.Industry is not only a major energy consumer but also the leading sector of China’s carbon emissions.Key industrial sectors are at the heart of the industrial sector,accounting for more than 80 per cent of its carbon emissions.Therefore,it is of strategic significance to accurately understand the carbon emission situation of key industrial sectors and promote the decoupling of carbon emission from the economic growth of each key industrial sector to achieve the transformation and development of low consumption and low emissions in the industrial sector,and at the same time to promote the emission reduction of the manufacturing sector and the realization of China’s carbon peak.Based on LMDI model and Tapio decoupling model,this paper introduces energy intensity,energy structure,economic scale,economic structure,investment intensity,R&D intensity and R&D efficiency to build industrial carbon emission decoupling model.Firstly,the carbon emission status and decoupling status of China’s key industrial sectors were analyzed,and then the driving factors of carbon emission in key industrial sectors were decomposed,and then the decoupling factors and contribution rates of each driving factor were calculated.Based on the decomposition of driving factors and the contribution rates of various decoupling factors,we can accurately grasp the decoupling state and driving factors between carbon emissions and economic growth of the six key industrial sectors.The results show that:(1)in the long run,China’s carbon emissions from all key industrial sectors are in a state of weak decoupling.The decoupling state of non-gold products is relatively stable and basically in a weak decoupling state.In recent years,the decoupling states of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry,non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry,electric power and thermal production and supply industry are unstable,and there are expansion connection,expansion negative decoupling and strong negative decoupling states.In addition,the three industrial sectors of petroleum,coal and other fuel processing industries,non-metallic mineral products industry,and chemical raw materials and chemical product manufacturing industries have a trend of strong decoupling.But over the long term from 2000 to 2016,the decoupling of carbon emissions from six key industrial sectors remains weak.(2)The driving factors of decoupling of carbon emissions in key industrial sectors have both commonality and individuality.Economies of scale effect is the primary restraining factor for decoupling of six key industrial sectors,especially ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry,whose long-term contribution rate of economy of scale decoupling is as high as 50%.The economic structural effect has a relatively significant role in promoting the decoupling of the petroleum processing,coking and nuclear fuel processing industries,as well as the power and thermal production and supply sectors,and there is a certain inhibition of the decoupling of the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries.The contribution of energy structure effect to carbon emission decoupling of various sectors is not obvious.In recent years,the investment intensity effect,R&D intensity effect and R&D efficiency effect have important effects on carbon emission decoupling in key industrial sectors.In the long term,the R&D intensity effect and the energy intensity effect are key contributors to the decoupling of the six key industrial sectors.This study is helpful to clarify the relationship between carbon emission and economic growth of key industrial sectors in China and provide theoretical reference for industrial low-carbon transformation.Compared with existing research,the improvements and innovations in this article are mainly reflected in three aspects:research object,index selection and research method:(1)Research object.The research on decoupling carbon emissions from economic growth is positioned in China’s key industrial sectors.The key industrial sectors have the highest energy consumption in the industrial industry and dominate the changes in industrial carbon emissions.Their research is more directional and reference for promoting the transformation and development of the industrial industry Sex.(2)Index selection.After fully considering the R&D and investment of industrial enterprises such as energy saving and emission reduction,the introduction of seven indicators such as R&D efficiency,R&D intensity,and investment intensity to analyze the driving factors of decoupling in key industrial sectors can more accurately reflect the actual situation of decoupling of carbon emissions in various sectors.(3)Research methods.Based on the combination of staged analysis and long-term comprehensive analysis,qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis are combined,and the quantitative analysis of each driving factor more intuitively reflects the driving role of each indicator.