Green Paradox Effect Analysis Of New Energy Vehicles Based On System Dynamics

With the increasing environmental pollution and resource shortage,in order to reduce the dependence on foreign crude oil and reduce carbon dioxide emissions,the central and local governments have introduced a series of fiscal and non-fiscal policies to support the development of new energy vehicles.From the perspective of policy intensity,this paper analyzes the energy saving and emission reduction benefits of new energy vehicles,reveals whether there is a "green paradox" effect in the policies supporting new energy vehicles,and deeply explores the problems existing in the development process of new energy vehicles.This paper establishes the causal loop diagram of new energy vehicle system dynamics by combing the relevant literature.Based on the system dynamics theory,it establishes the system dynamics flow diagram of new energy vehicle by combining the theories and methods of gray system theory,Lotka-Volterra model,linear regression and so on.Extreme condition test,mental model test and sensitivity test were used to verify the rationality and robustness of the model.The test results show that the new energy vehicle system dynamic flow diagram has good robustness and high rationality.This paper makes simulation analysis from four perspectives: policy effect,“green paradox”,economic-social benefit and health benefit.Simulation results show that(1)The fiscal and non-fiscal policies of government departments mainly affect the competition coefficient of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles.Due to the effect of delay,the impact of policies on the growth of new energy vehicles will become prominent after a period of time.(2)With the gradual increase in the intensity of policies supporting new energy vehicles,China’s carbon dioxide emissions cannot be reduced in the short term,resulting in the “green paradox” effect.(3)The emergence of new energy vehicles will have different degrees of negative impact on China’s social environment and economy,and the strength of the negative impact depends on the government’s control and regulation of the relevant factors affecting new energy vehicles.(4)The replacement of fuel vehicles by new energy vehicles has the problem of environmental pollution risk transfer,and the current recycling efficiency of used batteries of new energy vehicles in China may not meet the market demand.