Study On The Development Path Of Beijing’s Dematerialization Based On System Dynamics

Dematerialization is an effective measure of sustainable development,reflecting the relative or absolute reduction in resource consumption and pollutant emissions accompanying economic development.In order to quantify the best measures for dematerialization development of Beijing,this study combined the material flow analysis method and Tapio decoupling index to construct a comprehensive evaluation model of Beijing’s dematerialization level.On this basis,for the purpose of exploring the important factors affecting the sustainable development of Beijing’s resource-economy-environment system,as well as simulating Beijing’s material metabolism and the development trend of dematerialization,a system dynamic model of Beijing’s dematerialization development was established.Through the simulation analysis of the four socio-economic development scenarios,the optimal path of dematerialization development in Beijing is obtained,which can provide a theoretical basis for Beijing and other cities to formulate dematerialization development policies.In addition,due to the different contribution of various materials at the resource and emissions end to the realization of dematerialization,this paper specifically compares the differences in the simulation results of the eight materials under the four socioeconomic scenarios.From the simulation and analysis of basic material metabolism and system dynamics in Beijing,we can draw:(1)From 1992 to 2017,92.00% of the years achieved dematerialization,and changed from weak dematerialization to strong.The emission end has greater potential for reduction in the future.Increasing the dematerialization level at the resource and emission ends should focus on non-metal input and carbon dioxide emissions.(2)Beijing’s economy can achieve stable development from 2017 to 2030,with GDP growth of more than 90%.Future predictions for DMI and DPO show that industrial restructuring and environmental governance are the two types of scenarios that achieve their lowest values in 2030,with specific values of 301.92 million tons and 51.95 million tons,respectively.But the rebound effect brought about by technological progress needs attention.(3)Under the four scenarios,Beijing can achieve the development of dematerialization,but the realization time and the degree of dematerialization are different.The optimal dematerialization pathways of the eight materials are quite different.For example,in the period of 2018-2024,under the industrial restructuring scenario,the overall dematerialization level was the highest.From 2025 to 2030,the environmental governance scenario is the best way to continue to improve Beijing’s overall dematerialization level.In 2030,compared with other scenarios,this scenario will cause the dematerialization index to decrease by 22.71%,15.33%,and 56.70%,respectively.Therefore,in the future,Beijing should continue to improve the technological level,optimize the industrial structure,and plan environmental governance measures in advance.In addition,in order to achieve different development goals,measures should be developed for key materials.Measuring Beijing’s dematerialization development can provide a comprehensive evaluation basis for the sustainable development of other cities,and the future development of the city needs to be formulated according to the specific characteristics of the resource input end and pollution emissions end.