China’s Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction Under 2℃ Or 1.5℃ Target

With the rapid development of the economy,the problem of climate change has become increasingly prominent.The Paris Agreement proposed the 2°C target and1.5°C target.As a major carbon dioxide emitter,China has significant pressures on reducing emissions.This paper focuses on the issue of“China’s carbon dioxide emission reduction under the 2°C target or 1.5°C target”,and explores the current status,influencing factors,emission paths,and the allocation of carbon emissions between provinces and industries.The results will help the balanced development of regions and industries,and realize China’s low-carbon economic road.First,this paper proposes a new method of time-space structure decomposition analysis（ST-SDA）to analyze the influencing factors of CO₂ emissions in China and its30 provinces（except Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan and Tibet）from 1997 to 2012.The results show that the main driving factor is the final demand,indicating that the development of economic scale has promoted the increase of CO₂emissions.The carbon intensity factor is the only negative factor,indicating that technological progress contributes to reducing carbon emissions.Secondly,I constructed a time-dimension CO₂ emission reduction optimization model,and set three scenarios,namely,baseline scenario,2°C target scenario and 1.5°C target scenario,simulated China’s carbon dioxide emission path from 2010 to 2050.The results show that the peak of carbon dioxide emission occurs in 2040 under the 2°C scenario and in 2030 under the 1.5°C scenario.Thirdly,considering the imbalance of regional development,the marginal abatement cost of provinces is calculated by establishing a quadratic directional distance function model.The quotas for CO₂ emissions between provinces are calculated.It is found that China’s eastern coastal areas should increase emission reduction,while the central and western regions can allocate more CO₂ emission.Finally,I allocated the carbon emissions of six high-energy-consuming industries in China from 2016 to 2050.First,the traditional DEA model is used to measure the DEA efficiency of each industry under the initial allocation scheme,and it is found that the initial DEA value is low;The ZSG-DEA model is used to propose an adjustment plan.The transportation industry is the one that receives the most CO₂ emission allowances,and the power and steel industries need to reduce emissions to achieve reduction targets.In summary,China should take into account economic development while reducing carbon dioxide emissions in the future.We need to develop emission reduction technologies,and optimize the industrial structure.For regional emission reductions,different policies should be adopted and inter-regional carbon trading should be developed.In terms of industry emission reduction,we should focus on industries with high emission reduction potential,such as the power industry.