Research On R&d Investment,Energy Efficiency And Industrial Carbon Emissions Reduction Path

China is currently the world’s largest carbon emitter.As the main sector of China’s carbon emissions,industry must be ahead of other sectors to achieve the emission reduction targets promised in the Paris Agreement by Chinese government.Therefore,exploring the suitable path of carbon emissions reduction in China’s industrial sector has become a hot issue.The rapid growth of China’s industrial carbon emissions is mainly due to high economic growth and inefficient energy use,and thus improving energy efficiency has been regarded as an important means to reduce emissions.The key to improving energy efficiency is technological progress,which requires continual investment in R&D investment and innovation.Therefore,exploring China’s industrial carbon emissions reduction path from the perspective of R&D induced energy efficiency improvement is of great significance for China to achieve the goal of carbon intensity and carbon peak as soon as possible.Firstly,the STIRPAT model is used to analyze the impact of R&D investment on industrial carbon emissions from the whole industry level,the time dimension,and the sub-industry level,respectively,based on the panel data of 35 industrial subsectors in China from 2001 to 2017.Then,we established a multi-objective optimization model with industrial economic output,total energy consumption and carbon emissions being the objectives,and R&D intensity and physical capital investment being control variables to explore the optimal path of industrial carbon emission reduction under the constraint of given economic growth rate.Finally,the optimization model and scenario simulation were combined to explore the optimal path of carbon emissions reduction under various economic growth rate constrained scenarios.The results show that:(1)For the whole industry,every 1% increase in R&D intensity will reduce the industrial carbon emission by 0.0501%;at all stages,R&D investment has a positive effect on promoting carbon emissions reduction;for different industries,for the heavy and moderate emission industry,R&D investment has a significant impact on reducing carbon emissions,while for the light emission industry,the carbon emissions show an increasing trend when R&D investment is increased.(2)Under the optimized corbon emissions reduction path,the average annual growth rate of R&D intensity is 11.14%,which increase 3.06% compared to the baseline scenario;China’s industry will achieve the target of "65% reduction in carbon intensity relative to 2005" by 2023 ahead;China’s industrial carbon emissions will peak in 2021 ahead,a reduction of 661 million tons compared to the baseline scenario;from 2017 to 2030,the total carbon emissions will be 9,549 million tons less than the baseline scenario.(3)Based on scenario analysis and the comparison of optimal carbon emissions reduction paths under different scenario,it is found that the rapid economic growth of industry is not conducive to carbon reduction;as the given economic growth rate increases,the energy intensity and carbon intensity will decline more slowly,the peak of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions will increase and the peak year will delay.