Study On The Influencing Factors Of Energy Footprint Based On Carbon Sink Method And NPP Method

According to the requirements of the carbon peaking action initiated by the country,it is of great significance for improving environmental quality to study the relationship between environmental quality standards and carbon emission peaks.Taking Anhui Province as an example,the article conducts research from the perspective of energy footprint.Firstly,Carbon sink method and Net Primary Productivity(NPP)method are adopted,and non-fossil energy consumption is also included in the calculation of energy footprint,so as to explore a more accurate calculation model to measure energy footprint.In the second place,logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI)is used to analyze the influencing factors of energy footprint,and Pearson correlation coefficient analysis is used to explore the influence of non-fossil energy footprint on the total change rate of energy footprint.The purpose of this paper is to provide a scientific and effective calculation model and theoretical support for Anhui Province to take the green environmental protection route,so as to achieve the national strategic goal of carbon emission peak and carbon neutralization.(1)As a new hot research field in the footprint family,energy footprint can effectively reflect the impact of energy consumption on the environment.To accurately measure the energy footprint and measure the impact of non-fossil energy consumption on the energy footprint,NPP method and carbon sink method were used to calculate the energy footprint in this study,and the results show that the calculation result of carbon sink method is 3.58 times that of NPP model.The reason is that the carbon sink method only calculates the carbon absorption capacity of woodland,while the NPP model includes three land types besides woodland: cultivated land,garden land and grassland.Moreover,it measures the carbon absorption capacity of land using net primary productivity,takes into account the impact of land use changes over time,and optimizes the calculation method of non-fossil energy.It can be seen that the calculation accuracy of NPP method is stronger and has more reference value.Therefore,this paper chooses the calculation results of NPP model as the basis for subsequent research.(2)Based on the NPP method,the energy footprint containing non-fossil energy in Anhui Province from 2009 to 2016 was calculated.During the eight years,the cumulative growth rate was 511.25×104hm2,with an average annual growth rate of 5.02%.The per capita energy footprint increased from 0.19hm2 to 0.25hm2.The composition of the energy footprint,in descending order,is: coal,oil,non-fossil energy,natural gas.(3)The influencing factors of energy footprint were analyzed based on LMDI model.The results show that energy intensity accounts for 94.35% of the factors that restrain the growth of energy footprint,and its contribution is-1.57.Economic development accounted for 95.95% of the factors contributing to the growth of energy footprint,accounting for 2.55 percentage points.The positive effect mainly based on economic development is greater than the negative effect mainly based on energy intensity,and the ratio of the two is 1.74:1.The increase of energy consumption caused by economic development is difficult to be restrained only by the increase of energy intensity.The effect of energy structure and carbon emission factor only plays a-0.05 contribution degree,which has great inhibiting potential.(4)Based on the Pearson correlation analysis method,the contribution of the nonfossil energy footprint is negatively correlated with the total change rate of-0.54,and the coal footprint is positively correlated with 0.44.Therefore,there are several effective ways to curb the growth of the energy footprint,such as adjusting the energy mix,reducing coal consumption,increasing consumption of non-fossil energy,reducing carbon emissions.