Research On Decoupling Effects And Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emissions Of Anhui Power Generation Industry

Economic development is accompanied by the large-scale use of fossil fuels,which has increased greenhouse gas emissions,mainly carbon dioxide,and caused environmental problems such as global warming.Nowadays,controlling carbon emissions and developing a low-carbon economy have become the consensus of all countries in the world.Among the carbon emission control methods,the carbon emission trading market is an innovative way to achieve carbon emission reduction through market mechanisms,and a basic task for establishing the carbon emission trading market is to verify the carbon emissions of key carbon emission companies..Based on the relevant data of the 2013-2018 Anhui Province Carbon Emission Reporting and Verification and Monitoring Plan Development Project(hereinafter referred to as the Carbon Emission Verification Project),this research carried out the following work for the thermal power industry with the most carbon emissions in Anhui Province:(1)The LMDI additive decomposition method is used to decompose the carbon emissions of the thermal power industry in Anhui Province to explore the factors that affect carbon emissions.The results show that the positive driving factors of carbon emissions in the thermal power industry in Anhui Province from 2013 to 2018 are economic scale effect,energy emission effect,and population scale effect,and the negative driving factors are power supply energy consumption effect,power intensity effect,and power structure effect.In order to more quantitatively study the impact of changes in various influencing factors on carbon emissions,this paper uses the STIRPAT model to statistically analyze the carbon emissions and influencing factors,and finally obtains the STIRPAT model carbon emissions expression.(2)Combining the scenario analysis method with the LMDI multiplication decomposition method,the predicted values of carbon emissions were obtained under three scenarios: the baseline scenario,the planning scenario and the low-carbon scenario.Among them,the carbon emission under the low-carbon scenario shows a downward trend,which provides a theoretical basis for "carbon peak".(3)Research on the decoupling effect of the three indicators of carbon emissions,per capita carbon emissions,and carbon emission intensity.The results show that the decoupling index of carbon emission intensity has reached a more ideal state,and the decoupling effect of carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions still has a lot of room for development.Furthermore,the decoupling index of carbon emissions is decomposed into three sub-decoupling indexes for analysis using the causal chain.The results show that the thermal power industry has a faster growth rate and carbon emissions,and it performs better in terms of energy-saving indicators.Based on the above research,this article puts forward suggestions for the development of thermal power industry in Anhui Province,which can provide a basis for the formulation of low-carbon policies and the construction of carbon trading markets in the future,so as to formulate more targeted measures to control the carbon dioxide emissions of thermal power industry in Anhui Province.Effective control.This will further accelerate the construction of a green economic development system with low energy consumption and low pollution,and achieve the ambitious goals of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality".