Exploring The Impact Of Carbon Trading On China’s Industrial Exports By Multi Scenario Forecast

To promote the realization of green and low-carbon development strategy in China,the pace of establishing and improving the national carbon trading market is accelerating.The trading of carbon emission rights means that more environmental costs will be internalized into production costs.In view of China’s current export-oriented economic situation,the development of carbon trading is bound to affect the product costs,and then leads to a series of changes at the export level.In order to explore the impact of carbon trading on industrial export in China,this paper constructs a multi scenario forecasting model covering three aspects,i.e.,cost,price,volume,of 39 industries under the framework of imperfect competition.With positive expectations,eight scenarios for carbon trading in 2030 are set based on the combination of baseline method and grandfather method.The research shows:(1)Due to the difficulty of emission reduction and high carbon price in clean industry,carbon trading leads to a substantial increase in export cost.Because of the large volume of some polluting industries,the cost of emission reduction has been apportioned,so the export cost has not increased significantly.(2)There are incomplete transmissions between the export cost and export price in industry.When the export cost increases,consumers only bear part of the price increase caused by the cost increase,and the remaining cost increase is absorbed by manufacturers.And the less competitive industry usually has lower cost-price passthrough effect,thus the export price of the industry is also relatively less affected by carbon trading.(3)The fixed markup ratios of all industries are greater than 1,then price elasticities of demand are greater than 1,which means that the carbon cost will inevitably lead to the decline of the export volume in industry.Compared with industries with higher product cost,industries with higher exports volume will be more affected by carbon trading.After comprehensive comparison,this paper accepts the opinion that “High baseline-historical output” quota allocation method is the most appropriate carbon trading mechanism to alleviate the adverse impact of carbon trading on industrial exports in China.In this paper,39 industrial sectors are included in the carbon trading market,and eight carbon trading scenarios are set,which further deepen the research of carbon market and enrich the relevant theories.This paper breaks the limitation of internalization of environmental cost in previous studies,and fully considers the incompleteness of cost to price transmission.The pricing reflection of industry facing cost changed in the actual competitive environment is copied into carbon trading,which improves the research on the impact of carbon trading on exports.In addition,the paper provides valuable references for the government to establish and improve the carbon trading market from the perspective of export protection and warns that the export industries affected by carbon trading make early response.