Research On Emission Reduction Cost And Health Benefit Of Air Pollution Prevention And Control

Recently,air pollution in China is serious,especially the regional air environment problem with fine particulate matter(PM2.5)as the specific pollutant is increasingly prominent.Key industries such as thermal power,steel,and cement are important sources of air pollution.To solve the air pollution prevention and control problems in these key industries,China has put forward some requirements,including accelerating the adjustment of energy structure,improving energy efficiency,accelerating the renovation project construction,and accelerating the improvement of pollutant emission standards.It is uncertain whether the formulation and implementation of air pollution prevention and control policies in these key industries have cost-effectiveness.In addition,the health benefits of air quality improvement from air pollution prevention and control in key industries are not also estimated.In this study,the emission reduction processes of pollutants in four key industries of thermal power desulfurization(S-P),steel desulfurization(S-IS),thermal power denitrification(N-P)and cement denitrification(N-C)in 30 provinces were studied,and the cost-benefit analysis of air pollution prevention and control in key industries was conducted.The study first explored the optimal path and cost of emission reduction for industrial industries under the 2030 air pollution prevention and control goal by constructing pollutant emission reduction curves for key industries.Secondly,the econometric model and the human capital method were used to explore the response relationship between PM2.5 and health care expenditure,premature death,to evaluate the health benefits of air pollution prevention and control.And then,based on the SO2,NOx emission of provinces and dynamic response surface model(RSM),this study simulated the PM2.5 in a future year and assessed the cost-effectiveness of different strategies for the control of air pollution.Finally,based on the benefit-cost ratio,the study explored the optimal strategy of the prevention and control of atmospheric pollution and provided data support and policy suggestions for the government.The results show that there are differences in the optimal cost of emission reduction in key industries.For the thermal power sector,it is recommended that inland provinces should reduce pollutants first,followed by central provinces and finally eastern provinces.For the steel industry,it is recommended that central provinces should reduce pollutants first and northern coastal provinces are last.For the cement industry,it is recommended to prioritize the reduction of pollutants in central provinces before considering the reduction of pollutants in other regions.Under the emission reduction target of 50%lower than emission of 2015,the total emission reduction cost of S-P,S-IS,N-P,and N-C in 2030 will reach 116.89 Billion Yuan,accounting for 0.07%of the 2030 GDP.In addition,under the 2030 emission reduction target,the efficiency loss caused by the top-down allocation methods of total amount ranges from 3.30%to 11.81%.The efficiency loss caused by the allocation methods of the total amount is not serious,and the application of the allocation methods of the total amount to the prevention and control of air pollution in key industries will not have a serious impact on the cost and benefit.A 1% decrease in yearly PM2.5 exposure corresponds to a 2.94%reduction in spending on household healthcare and 30.23 Yuan reduction in expenditure on personal healthcare.A 1%reduction in annual PM2.5,national health care expenditure will be reduced by 42.58 Billion Yuan in 2030.A 1 ug/m3 of PM2.5 reduction,the all-cause mortality rate will be reduced by 0.051%,and the economic value of life lost per capita caused by single premature death will reach 620 Thousand Yuan.A 1%reduction in PM2.5 will reduce 1.93 Billion Yuan in economic losses caused by premature deaths nationwide by 2030.Under the emission reduction target of reducing the total emissions of S-P,S-IS,N-P,and N-C by 50%compared with 2015,the reduction of pollutants will generate 307.91 Billion Yuan of health benefits,accounting for 0.3%of 2030 GDP.Under the emission reduction target of reducing the total emissions of S-P,S-IS,N-P,and N-C by 50%compared with 2015,compared with other reduction strategies,the strategy executing the current sustainable energy policies and the pollution prevention and control policies is considered to be the optimal strategy to reduce emissions.In this strategy,the strategy of energy production and consumption revolution(2016-2030)is implemented,existing reduction measures are reformed,the new enterprise is required to apply the advanced emission reduction process,"ultra-low emission" or other stricter pollutants emission standards are adopted.If the emission reduction strategy is too loose,it may be difficult to meet the emission reduction requirements,while if the emission reduction strategy is too strict,it may lead to too high cost of emission reduction,resulting in ineffective cost.Based on the above research results,policy suggestions of this study are finally put forward from the following two aspects.Firstly,the government should promote the setting of pollution emission reduction targets for regional differentiation.Secondly,they should promote the current implementation of sustainable energy policies and pollution prevention and control policies.The result of this study can provide decision support for the setting of emission reduction targets and the selection of emission reduction strategies for key industries in the future.