| Land use is a kind of social and economic activity combining natural supply and human activities.It has been playing an important role in the research of global habitat change.To a large extent,the change of its function and structure is closely related to ecological environment protection.At the same time,as one of the three major ecosystems in the world,wetlands play a crucial role in biodiversity protection and climate regulation,which has always been concerned.However,in the rapid development of urbanization,industrialization at present,a large part of the wetland is facing the huge pressure,affected by the drought,fire,and man-made destruction of ecological system is imbalance,so to explore the ecosystem deterioration under the background of land use degree and its ecological carrying capacity research is to explore the new direction of sustainable development.In this paper,Zhalong wetland was selected as the research area.Based on GIS and RS technologies,extracts land use information based on 8 periods of remote sensing image interpretation data during 1998-2019,and studies the spatial and temporal changes of land use degree and structure of Zhalong wetland for more than20 years;meanwhile,with the help of meteorological data and socio-economic data,based on PSR model,the three aspects of elastic force system,support force system and pressure system are constructed.Aspects,a total of 14 indicators were selected to evaluate the ecological carrying capacity of Zhalong wetland,the entropy weight method was used to calculate the weights,the ecological carrying capacity index was calculated,and the ecological carrying capacity results were analyzed from different levels,then the barrier degree analysis was conducted on the selected indicators,and the main constraints affecting the top 6 ranking of the ecological carrying capacity development of Zhalong wetland were found,and finally the GM model was used to predict the ecological carrying capacity of Zhalong wetland The results were predicted,and the three-phase prediction results for the next 9 years were obtained.The results of the study are as follows.（1）Extracting land use information shows that the natural reuse land has been utilized to the highest extent for more than 20 years,exceeding 70% of the overall;the proportion of natural reuse land area in the core area is the largest among the three zones of management,but it decreases slightly with time;the experimental area has the largest proportion of anthropogenic reuse land area,indicating a large concentration of arable land.In the comparison of the three zones in the same year,the area share of unused land is consistent,and the core zone is the lowest;the size of the proportion of natural reuse land: core zone > buffer zone > experimental zone;and the proportion of anthropogenic reuse land: experimental zone > buffer zone > core zone,all three can reflect the best natural ecological condition in the core zone,followed by the buffer zone,and the lowest but highest anthropogenic land use in the experimental zone.（2）At the level of comprehensive degree of land use,the overall degree of land use within the study area of Zhalong Wetland is high,with index values above 200,but the land use of Zhalong Wetland has successively undergone the process of high development period-recession development repeatedly-recession.Combined with the comparison of the three sub-regions,the high and low status of the land use degree index: experimental area > study area > buffer zone > core area;the core area is the lowest,but the amount of inter-annual variation is the smallest and the value is slightly higher than 0;however,in the buffer zone,the amount and rate of land use change are mostly negative;the fastest rate of change in the experimental area is from 2013 to2016,and its rate is-4.07%,which is 1.5 times and 1.5 times of the rate of change in the two periods before and after,respectively.The fastest rate of change in the experimental area was from 2013 to 2016,with a rate of-4.07%,which was about 1.5times and 3 times of the change rates in the two periods before and after.（3）At the level of land use structure,from the beginning to the end of the study period,the information entropy and the equilibrium degree of the Zhalong wetland showed consistent changes,both slightly decreasing,while the dominance degree slightly increased,reaching the highest level in 2019,indicating that the land use change in the Zhalong wetland was in transition from disorder to order,and 2019 was the most stable year of the system structure during the whole study period;as for the spatial aspect,the Zhalong wetland In the northeast,there is a large amount of conversion of watered wetlands to land types other than bright water,while within Fu County and Lindian County,there are also patches of waterless wetlands converted to drylands,resulting in a dramatic increase in grassland area in 2019,up to twice as much as in 1998.（4）The ecological carrying capacity of Zhalong wetland from 1998 to 2019 has been in the medium carrying state,but its index is in the process of increasing in general,indicating that the ecological condition of Zhalong wetland is developing towards benign.Among them,the elastic force system has been in a weak stable state,the support force system has gone through the process of medium support-low support-middle support,and the pressure system has been in a low pressure state at the beginning until 2016 when it turned to a lower pressure,and the ecological environmental pressure of Zhalong wetland has slightly increased.Among the five factor layers under the subsystem,the agricultural consumption layer has the highest score,which slightly decreases with time,and the natural resources layer has the lowest score,but has a slow upward trend.（5）As shown by the barrier degree results,the top 6 main influencing factors are annual rainfall,average annual temperature,arable land productivity,open water area,grassland area,and meadow area.The occurrence rate of the top 6 in each year was as high as 100%,which belonged to the 2 factor layers of natural environment and ground cover,respectively,and thus the two were the main factors limiting the ecological carrying capacity.（6）According to the GM prediction results,in the next 9 years,the ecological carrying capacity index of Zhalong wetland increases with the year,with an average annual increase of 0.13%,and the ecological condition continues to transform to benign,which is in line with the national ecological civilization construction and sustainable development concept. |
