Research On The Impact Of EU Carbon Tariffs On China’s Manufacturing Exports

In July 2021,the European Commission officially announced a package of proposed climate measures containing numerous draft laws,with plans to significantly reduce carbon emissions within a decade,including a high-profile carbon boundary adjustment mechanism,commonly known as a "carbon tariff",and ten Unlike the US Clean Energy Act a few years ago,the EU carbon tariff is being implemented through legislation.The policy will be officially launched from 2023,and will mainly target high-carbon emission products such as steel,aluminum,chemicals and fertilizers.The EU’s largest importer and a major carbon emitter,the imposition of carbon tariffs will inevitably have a greater impact on my country’s manufacturing industry.Some developed countries like American and Japan also have the access to impose carbon tariffs.This paper also considers the situation of jointly levying carbon tariffs,which has certain practical significance for carbon emission reduction in my country’s manufacturing industry.Based on the 2004-2014 multi-regional input-output table published by WIOD in2016,this paper recompiles the three-country multi-regional international input-output table of China-EU-Other countries in the world,and calculates the direct carbon emissions of various sectors of my country’s manufacturing industry based on the table.Emission coefficient,complete carbon emission coefficient and implied carbon emissions,Results show that non-metallic mineral products,metal products,chemical industrial products and rubber and plastic products are the four sectors with the highest complete carbon emission coefficients,while pharmaceutical products,textiles,clothing And leather products and wood products are the three sectors with the smallest carbon emission factor.In addition,the total embodied carbon emissions of my country’s manufacturing exports increased year by year from 2004 to2011,and the proportion of embodied carbon in the total emissions also increased,accounting for nearly half in 2011.Emissions began to decline,which is related to the carbon emission reduction policy implemented in my country.From the perspective of various sectors,the embodied carbon emissions of electrical equipment and textile,clothing,and leather products are relatively large,while the embodied carbon emissions of food processing industry and pharmaceutical products are relatively small.Using GTAP model to simulate the impact of carbon tariffs on the domestic output,exports,GDP and social welfare of my country’s manufacturing sectors,as well as the carbon emissions of various countries in the world.It is concluded that the domestic output of my country’s manufacturing sectors has been affected.Impacts to different degrees,among which the output of transportation equipment,non-metallic mineral products,metal products and plastic products decreased,and the magnitude increased with the increase of carbon tariff standards,while the output of electronic products increased with the increase of the levy standards.Raising turns from increasing to decreasing.In terms of exports,the export volume of non-metallic mineral products,coke and refined petroleum products,chemical industry products,metal products,electrical equipment and rubber products shows a downward trend under the separate taxation scenario,and with the improvement of tariff collection standards,the export volume is more significant.Exports from other countries such as Japan and the United States will increase.Under the common taxation scenario,except for pharmaceutical products,food and textile and leather products,all other manufacturing sectors have reduced exports to the world.In terms of GDP,under the separate taxation scenario,the GDP of my country and the EU will show a downward trend,while other countries will rise,and it will become more obvious with the improvement of tariff collection standards,but the GDP of other countries in the world will show a downward trend in the joint taxation scenario.In terms of social welfare,my country’s social welfare decreases due to the EU’s imposition of carbon tariffs,while other countries’ social welfare increases,and the world’s overall welfare declines.The trend of social welfare decline under the common taxation scenario is even greater.In terms of carbon dioxide emissions,my country’s carbon dioxide emissions have decreased,but other countries’ emissions have increased,resulting in a slight increase in the world’s overall carbon dioxide emissions.The EU carbon tariff’s carbon emission reduction statement is doubtful.Based on the above research conclusions,my country should continuously improve the energy consumption efficiency of the manufacturing industry,gradually get rid of the dependence on traditional energy,and further promote green manufacturing,vigorously develop a low-carbon circular economy,carry out domestic carbon emission reduction measures,and actively adjust the industrial export trade structure,in response to EU carbon tariffs.