Research On Calculation And Influencing Factors Of Embodied Carbon In China's Manufacturing Trade

At the beginning of "the Belt and Road" initiative,China gave priority to ecological and environmental protection,and implemented the concept of green development into the regional development plans under the framework of cooperation.However,various questions still exist on the "environmental damage theory" of "the Belt and Road" initiative in the world.In recent years,there has been a rapid development of trade between China and countries along "the Belt and Road" which has indirectly affected the environment of these countries.Along with the exchange of a large number of goods and services,carbon emissions embodied in trade will be transferred between China and the countries along "the Belt and Road".A country's export trade is due to the consumption of the importing country,so the carbon emissions embodied in the export trade are the environmental pollution undertaken by the exporting country for the importing country.This implies that the importing country has transferred pollution to the exporting country.Carrying out research from the perspective of embodied carbon not only covers direct emissions,but also covers indirect emissions embodied in the process of commodity trade.Therefore,calculating the embodied carbon emissions between China and the countries along "the Belt and Road" will help determine whether China is transferring pollution to other countries through "the Belt and Road"initiative.First of all,this paper systematically sorts out related literature studies on the measurement methods of trade embodied carbon,influencing factors of trade embodied carbon and the transferring of trade embodied carbon emissions,it is determined that this article will use the MRIO model and LMDI decomposition method to explore the driving factors of China's import and export embodied carbon emissions between China and the countries along "the Belt and Road".Secondly,this paper uses the latestinter-country input-output table provided in the OECD database,calculates the export-embodied carbon,import-embodied carbon and net export-embodied carbon emissions between China and the countries along "the Belt and Road",and based on LMDI method decomposes import and export embodied carbon from the two levels of sector and country,analyzes the direct influencing factors of embodied carbon in manufacturing trade,and conducts research and analysis from three aspects:scale effect,structural effect,and technical effect.Through the above research,it was found that from 2000 to 2015,China's manufacturing export embodied carbon emissions to countries along "the Belt and Road" were higher than import embodied carbon emissions.There was a trade embodied carbon surplus.The net inflow of carbon emissions shows that China has undertaken a part of carbon emissions for countries along "the Belt and Road"."S11 Computer,Electronic and Optical Products" and"S13 Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing" are the two sectors with the largest embodied carbon in net export trade.China is a net exporter of hidden carbon for most countries along the "Belt and Road",and Southeast Asia is China's largest net exporter of hidden carbon.In general,the scale effect will promote embodied carbon emissions,technical effects will suppress embodied carbon emissions,structural effects are uncertain,and the scale of trade is the main factor affecting embodied carbon emissions.Finally,based on the conclusions of the study,this paper proposes policy recommendations on reducing the export embodied carbon emissions of China and the countries along "the Belt and Road".