Research On Maintenance Plan Matching Based On Short-term Abandonment Prediction

After the explosive investment,construction and development in recent years,the wind power industry has begun to face the turning point and change of the industry.In 2016,the State Energy Administration was established,and at the same time,for the first time,the early warning guidance model for wind power investment was delineated and publicly announced.At the same time,the policy document further stipulates that the grid enterprises can not build new wind power related projects in the provinces（regions）designated in this document for red investment warning in the future.With the investment and development of wind power industry as a whole entering a period of slack,some areas enter a period of restraint of overheating development.On the basis of existing facilities,improving the economic efficiency and operation efficiency of wind power market has become a research hotspot and difficulty.At present,there are few studies on forecasting abandoned wind power.For the definition of wind abandonment,most of the current studies are based on the difference between the maximum possible output and the actual output of wind farm with wind speed in the corresponding meteorological environment,which has a poor guiding effect on the absorption of wind abandonment.In this paper,the definition of wind abandonment is proposed.There are many factors affecting abandoned wind power,and the related research on theoretical maximum potential output and real power generation can provide reference for the prediction of abandoned wind power.At present,under the condition of power limitation,wind farms mostly take the non-differentiated rotational maintenance of wind turbines as the realistic scheme,which makes the maintenance of wind turbines weak,high maintenance cost and poor maintenance effect;the mismatch between wind farm abandonment and maintenance shutdown plan leads to overlap between the maintenance period and non-power limitation period,resulting in poor economic benefits,serious phenomenon of wind abandonment and low utilization rate of wind resources.In view of the problems faced by abandoned wind power absorption,this paper proposes a new scheme for abandoned wind power absorption in wind farms.By forecasting the period of abandoned wind power and sorting the health of wind turbines,the adjustable period of wind turbines is matched with the period of abandoned wind power generation to generate maintenance plan,which transfers the downtime of non-abandoned wind period to the period of abandoned wind power generation,so as to realize the abandonment of abandoned wind power in wind farms.It does not depend on the dispatch adjustment of the power grid,does not increase the input of hardware facilities on the grid side,and minimizes the investment in the transformation of wind farms in order to achieve the benefit improvement based on the existing conditions.Firstly,the composition of available abandoned wind power is discussed,and then the input factors and forecasting methods that need to be considered in abandoned wind power forecasting are discussed,so as to improve the intelligent forecasting method based on the influencing factors of the theoretical maximum possible output and power grid demand.Then the health status of wind turbines is evaluated by the combination of priority weight and trend weight,which is the basis for maintenance and adjustment of wind turbines.Finally,the maintenance and shutdown period will be shifted to the abandoned wind period to improve the overall operation level of the wind farm,including effectively reducing the abandoned wind power,and improving the efficiency of the maintenance work.At the same time,the ideas mentioned in this paper provide a reference for other forms of abandonment of wind.The validity of the proposed method is verified by an example of actual historical data of a wind farm in Xinjiang..