The Impact Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On The Development Of China's Auto Import And Export Trade

Throughout the world,the development of a country's automobile foreign trade largely represents the country's overall international status,and weighs a country's industrial capacity,technological level,economic strength,and right to speak on the international trade stage.For China,the automobile industry plays an important role in the national economy.In recent years,China's automobile industry has made great progress.According to data released by China Association of Automobile Manufacturers,China's automobile production and sales in 2018 reached 27.809 million and 28.081 million vehicles,ranked first in global production and sales for 10 consecutive years.It can be seen that China is a big automobile country.In addition,according to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs,as of November 2019,China's total foreign import and export value was 28.5 trillion yuan.The total value of imports and exports of vehicles and their parts and components reached 0.94 trillion yuan,accounting for 3.28%,which is enough to illustrate the significance of China's development of automobile import and export trade.But at the same time,since the global financial crisis in 2008,national economies have experienced a sustained downturn.Insufficient domestic demand and sluggish international trade conditions have led to the difficulties of most countries.They constantly set various economic policies in the fields of industry,trade,finance,and the economic policy uncertainty of the world has increased significantly.Due to the Sino-U.S.Trade war,the Turkish currency crisis,the U.S.interest rate hike and shrinkage policy,the rise of protectionism and unilateralism,and the greater uncertainty of the economic growth of emerging countries,the level of global trade has declined significantly,China's automobile import and export trade has also been affected to varying degrees.For a long time,China's automobile industry has always been in a weak position.Chinese government has always attached great importance to the development of automobile import and export trade.Chinese government hoped to promote the overall strength of China's automobile industry through effective coordination and balance of automobile import and export trade.Therefore,under the high pressure of a sudden increase in economic policy uncertainty around the world,analyzing the impact mechanism and effect of economic policy uncertainty has become an important focus of this article.Due to the consideration of the above issues,this paper intends to use a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis based on the extended trade gravity model and dual margins theory,and explores how economic policy uncertainty affects China's automobile import and export trade through the contents of 6 chapters.On the basis of the extended trade gravity model and dual margins theory,this article first sorts out the changes in the uncertainties of global and Chinese economic policies,and looks for changes and trends.Secondly,this article explains the current situation of global and China's automobile import and export trade,and uses qualitative analysis method to study the different influences of economic policy uncertainty on China's automobile import and export trade.Furthermore,the extended trade gravity model is used to analyze the impact mechanism and effect of economic policy uncertainty on the import and export trade of vehicles and parts.An empirical study is conducted to analyze how economic policy uncertainty affects China's vehicles and parts' total scale,extensive margin,intensive margin,and summarize the differential impacts.In addition,this article will also introduce the typical cases of foreign trade development of the automotive industry,draw on the advanced experience of corporate development and foreign trade,and finally put forward the benefits suggestions for the development of China's auto import and export trade from the perspective of government and enterprises.