Study On Investment Risk Decision Of Offshore Photovoltaic Project Based On Z-number

In recent years,with the the global climate gradually warms,the fossil fuel energy of petroleum and coal is increasingly exhausted.In order to achieve the goal of "carbon peak,carbon neutrality",the development of new energy related industries is extremely increase.In such context,the new energy power generation projects are represented by solar photovoltaic power generation will usher in a situation of rapid development,which with good market investment prospect.Among them,offshore photovoltaic power generation has the characteristics of high power generation,low occupation of land and easy to integrate with other industries,which is conducive to optimize the energy consumption structure,and has gradually become a hot project for energy investors to participate in.However,in the current relevant literature studies,there are few researches on the investment risk decision-making of offshore photovoltaic power generation projects,and there is still a lack of theoretical support and practical guidance for the investment risk decision-making of offshore photovoltaic power generation projects.Therefore,this paper constructs the investment risk index system and decision-making model of offshore photovoltaic power generation project.First of all,with the construction of investment risk index system,a large number of relevant literature is collected and consulted,and the relevant research status of offshore photovoltaic power project construction is analyzed.And then according to the scientific rationality and objective comprehensive risk identification and system hierarchy principle,by means of literature review and expert survey,the investment risk index system of offshore photovoltaic power generation project is established from five dimensions of economic risk,technical risk,natural risk,market risk and social sustainable risk,covering 17 secondary risk indexes.Secondly,the investment risk decision-making model of offshore photovoltaic power generation project based on Z-number is established.Considering the fuzziness and reliability of information,this paper uses uncertain language Z-number to describe the index evaluation.In order to further reflect the uncertains and randomness in the decision-making process of investment risk,and achieve qualitative and quantitative conversion,a transformation model of uncertain language Z-number and trapezoidal cloud is proposed.Then,based on the trapezoidal cloud power weighted average square operator,the expert weight is calculated and the group decision information is aggregated,which overcomes the subjective arbitrariness of the expert weight in the multi-attribute group decision making method.Then,the subjective and objective weight method combined with the Network Analytic Hierarchy Process(ANP)and the maximization of deviation method is used to calculate the weight of criteria,and then the VIKOR method is used to realize the rank of the project,and the cloud similarity is used to give the risk level of the project.Finally,in order to verify the applicability and effectiveness of the index system and the investment risk decision model,this paper analyzes the calculation examples,and analyzes the sensitivity of the results from two aspects of decision-makers’ risk attitude parameters and index weights,so as to put forward the investment risk prevention and control measures.This paper has theoretical value and practical value,and the investment risk index system constructed is helpful to help project participants identify and control potential risks,and ensure the scientific decision-making and management of the project.The proposed investment risk decision-making model not only provides an effective solution to the investment risk decision-making problem of offshore photovoltaic power generation projects,but also provides a new research idea for other similar projects in the field of new energy.