Research On Interval Multi-Attribute Decision-Making And Its Application In SAFETY Assessment Of Rural Hydropower Station

The uncertainty, which contains randomness and fuzziness, is widely existed in many of the phenomena of nature and human society. In the field of multi-attribute decision-making, due to the vagueness of the decision-maker thinking and the complexity and uncertainty of the system, the information which is given by decision-maker are often interval numbers instead of real numbers. Therefore, the research of interval multiple attribute Decision-Making has wide practical significance. However, current research and its application for this kind of decision-making method are still in the preliminary stage, and theoretical system is not perfect. Furthermore, unlike the real number, the operation rule and the sort method of interval numbers has been controversial and difficult.In addition, because of the great growing demand of water and electricity, which led to a number of rural hydropower stations overload for a long time, there are a very serious security risks. The contradiction between the limited resources and lots of hydropower stations needed renovation have become increasingly prominent, so selecting the most serious hydropower station to renovate has important practical significance. At present, the method of selecting the rural hydropower station which is most needed to renovate, focuses on the comprehensive evaluation of hydropower station, such as safety, efficiency, technology and capacity. However, as to these old rural hydropower stations, the core of the assessment should be to safety rather than those indicators mentioned above. Therefore, we assess the rural hydropower station from the perspective of security risks. Furthermore, as to the work of these assessment are manual operated, there are many shortcoming as manual-calculations, miscalculation and information lag. These are easily leaded to mistakes in decision making then resulted to a huge loss.To solve the above problems, this paper force on the research of the Interval Multiple Attribute Decision-Making Method and rural hydropower risk assessment model. The main results are as follows: 1. With respect to attribute weights and attribute values are both interval number multi-attribute decision-making problem, a multiple attributes decision-making method based on cloud model is proposed. By referring to the thought of the cloud model using three indicators (expectations, entropy and hyper entropy) to explain uncertain concept, a method based on cloud model number is proposed. The method translates the interval number to cloud model number, and calculates the cloud model numbers to get the cloud model number of program. A sorting algorithm of cloud model number is defined to rank the alternatives by the calculated values. The method overcomes the disadvantage that using linear programming to solve interval multi-attribute decision problems need large calculation.2. With respect to attribute weights are real number and attribute values are interval number multi-attribute decision-making problem, a multiple attributes decision-making method based on satisfied degree is proposed. By referring to the thought of the satisfied degree in C_OWA, the possibility-degree of interval number and the connection-number in set pair analysis, the satisfied-degree based on interval possibility and the satisfied degree based on connection-number are presented to Eliminate the uncertain information in decision data. These satisfied degrees are aggregated by OWA and rank the alternatives by the calculated values. Through the interaction between the interval numbers, the method eliminates the uncertainty in the decision-making information, providing a new way of to solve interval number multi-attribute decision making problems. The method overcomes the disadvantage that using linear programming to solve interval multi-attribute decision problems need large calculation.3. With respect to rural hydropower stations security risk assessment problem, two methods of rural hydropower safety risk assessment model based on cloud model and rural hydropower safety risk assessment model based on the satisfaction are proposed. Based on these models, build the software.